Poll Predicts Liberal Defeat in South Australian Lower House
A recent poll from Fox & Hedgehog predicts a challenging landscape for the South Australian Liberal Party in the upcoming state election. The January 31 to February 8 poll indicates the Liberals could face significant losses in the lower house, potentially losing seats to both the Labor Party and One Nation.
Poll Details and Statistics
The Fox & Hedgehog poll sampled 904 respondents and revealed a 61% preference for Labor compared to 39% for the Liberals, holding steady since December. The breakdown of primary votes showed:
- Labor: 40% (down 1%)
- One Nation: 20% (up 7%)
- Liberals: 19% (down 2%)
- Greens: 12% (steady)
- Others: 9% (down 4%)
The “three-party preferred” calculations showed Labor at 54%, One Nation at 25%, and the Liberals trailing at 21%. If these figures hold, the Liberals could potentially lose all 47 lower house seats, while Labor is poised to secure a substantial majority.
Impact on Previous Elections
In the last South Australian election held in 2022, the Liberals secured 16 seats. At that time, Labor won the two-party vote by a margin of 54.6% to 45.4%. The current poll suggests that the dynamics have shifted significantly.
Leadership Approval Ratings
Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas enjoys a favorable approval rating of 52% to 21%. New Liberal leader Ashton Hurn trails with 20% approval, while former leader Vincent Tarzia had a disapproval rating of 25% to 17%.
One Nation’s Growing Influence
One Nation’s rise is notable, especially with Cory Bernardi, a former right-wing federal Liberal senator, as their lead candidate for the upper house. They are expected to benefit from the departing Liberal preferences in the upcoming election.
Upcoming Election Context
The South Australian state election is scheduled for March 21, and the results of the Fox & Hedgehog poll suggest a volatile electoral landscape. With half of the 22 upper house seats up for grabs, the influence of proportional representation could significantly alter party dynamics.
Conclusion
As the election date approaches, the possibility of a Liberal defeat appears increasingly realistic, given the recent polling trends. The outcome will depend on how these predictions translate into voter turnout and preference allocation during the ballot.
