Nvidia (NVDA) rides AI spending wave as Wall Street eyes Feb. 25 earnings
Nvidia shares have snapped back sharply in early February, with investors refocusing on one question: whether the next leg of the AI buildout can keep matching the company’s breakneck growth. The stock surged late last week amid renewed enthusiasm for data-center investment plans, pushing Nvidia’s market value back into the mid–$4 trillion range and setting up a closely watched earnings update later this month.
What’s driving NVDA right now
The latest rally has been fueled by a familiar catalyst: Big Tech and cloud providers signaling they still plan to spend heavily on AI infrastructure, even as investors debate how quickly those investments will translate into profits across the industry. Nvidia remains the most direct public-market proxy for that trend because its data-center GPUs and rack-scale systems sit at the center of many AI training and inference deployments.
Traders also appear to be treating recent volatility in chip stocks as a reset rather than a reversal. After a choppy stretch for mega-cap tech, Nvidia’s bounce has been read as a sign that the market is still willing to pay up for companies tied to AI capacity buildouts—so long as order momentum and margins hold up.
The near-term catalyst: Feb. 25 earnings and guidance
Nvidia is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET. The report covers the quarter and full fiscal year that ended Jan. 25, 2026.
The focus is likely to land on three areas:
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Data-center demand and backlog: Investors will look for signals that large customers are still expanding deployments, not merely shifting timing between quarters.
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Supply and delivery cadence: Any improvement—or renewed tightness—around high-end systems can move expectations quickly.
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Forward guidance: More than the backward-looking numbers, the next-quarter outlook tends to set the tone for the stock, especially at Nvidia’s scale.
Blackwell today, Rubin next: why the product roadmap matters
Nvidia has been in the middle of a generational transition in its data-center lineup, and that transition has a direct impact on revenue timing. Customers can pause orders to wait for a new platform, or accelerate buys to secure supply—either way, the mix of shipments matters for growth rates and margins.
In early January, Nvidia also outlined its next-generation Vera Rubin platform, positioning it as the next step for AI supercomputing deployments during 2026. The market implication is straightforward: if customers see a clear path from current systems to Rubin, it can support multi-quarter spending plans—and keep Nvidia’s pricing power intact—assuming supply can keep up.
How big is Nvidia now? Market cap and stock levels in context
Nvidia’s size has become part of the story. Moves that used to be considered “big tech volatility” now translate into hundreds of billions of dollars in market value. In early February, the company’s market capitalization has been cited around $4.4–$4.5 trillion, reflecting how sensitive the stock is to shifting AI-spend expectations.
After Friday’s rally, Nvidia shares closed around the mid-$180s, leaving the stock near key technical levels watched by momentum traders. The takeaway for everyday investors: even small percentage swings can be dramatic in dollar terms, and that dynamic tends to intensify around earnings.
Key dates investors are watching (ET)
| Date (ET) | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Feb. 6, 2026 | Nvidia shares jump sharply | AI-spending narrative reasserts itself |
| Feb. 25, 2026, 5:00 p.m. | Earnings call | Guidance and supply commentary can reset expectations |
| 2026 (second half focus) | Rubin-era deployments expand | Roadmap credibility and delivery cadence underpin growth |
What’s next for the stock and the sector
Between now and Feb. 25, the setup is relatively clear: expectations have risen again, and Nvidia’s results and commentary will need to reinforce confidence in sustained demand and manageable supply constraints. If the company signals strong visibility and steady margins, the AI complex could broaden its rebound. If guidance disappoints or supply issues flare, the same concentration that powers rallies can amplify pullbacks.
Either way, Nvidia’s role as the bellwether for AI hardware spending looks intact—making its next update one of the most important market events of late February.
Sources consulted: NVIDIA Investor Relations, Reuters, The Verge, Trading Economics
