Hill Perspective: Taylor May Challenge Ley After Newspoll Fallout Despite Coalition Repair

Sussan Ley and David Littleproud recently announced a last-minute reconciliation within the federal Coalition, aiming to stave off a leadership challenge from Angus Taylor. Observers noted that whether this effort will successfully prevent Taylor from pursuing a challenge remains uncertain, with some estimates placing the likelihood of such a move at 50-50.

Newspoll Fallout and Coalition Dynamics

The release of the latest Newspoll revealed a concerning trend for the Coalition. Their primary vote has dropped to 18%, with the Liberal Party at 15% and the Nationals at 3%. Ley’s net satisfaction rating stands at a dismal minus 39, reflecting an 11-point decline since January.

• Labor’s primary vote: 33% (up 1 point since January)
• One Nation’s primary vote: 27% (up 5 points over three weeks)
• Albanese leads Ley by 19 points as preferred prime minister

These figures suggest Labor could significantly enhance its majority if elections were held immediately. Liberal sources had indicated that the poll results would play a vital role in determining whether Taylor would challenge Ley this week.

Coalition Agreement Highlights

Following intense negotiations, Ley and Littleproud reached an agreement designed to unify the Coalition. Ley had previously indicated plans to establish an all-Liberal frontbench if consensus was not achieved. During their joint press conference in Canberra, despite the evident lack of rapport between Ley and Littleproud, they detailed key points of the new Coalition framework.

• All shadow ministers must sign an agreement to uphold shadow cabinet solidarity.
• A shadow cabinet “decisions register” will be established.
• Neither the National Party nor the Liberal Party can reverse shadow cabinet decisions.
• The primacy of the joint party room will be codified.

These elements are critical as they address concerns from Nationals sources about preserving party autonomy. The crisis was triggered when three Nationals frontbenchers opposed the government’s anti-hate legislation, resulting in Ley’s decision to dismiss them for breaching solidarity.

Future of the Coalition

Under the new arrangements, all Nationals, including senators, will remain outside shadow ministerial roles for a cumulative six-week period. They will revert to previous roles on March 1. During the interim, both the leader and deputy leader of the Nationals will participate in significant meetings to ensure joint representation.

Although discussions about Ley’s plan for an all-Liberal frontbench garnered mixed reactions, many Liberals recognize the critical need for Coalition unity. Ley stressed at the press conference, “The overwhelming majority of my party room knows that the Coalition is stronger together.”

Littleproud emphasized the principled nature of the Coalition’s earlier split, stating the need for both parties to have adequate time and processes to address legislative concerns, highlighting the importance of the Coalition’s integrity beyond mere personalities.