UAE Flights Tied to Sudan Conflict Traced from Israel to Ethiopia

A recent investigation has unveiled a series of flights involving a cargo plane previously associated with arms supply, connecting the UAE, Israel, and Ethiopia amid the ongoing Sudan conflict.

Flight Connections and Background

The cargo plane, an Antonov An-124 registered as UR-ZYD, has made multiple trips between military bases in Abu Dhabi, Israel, and Ethiopia recently. This comes as the geopolitical landscape in the region shifts due to tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia over Yemen and the Horn of Africa.

Ongoing Power Struggle

The conflict in Sudan has deepened since its outbreak in April 2023, coinciding with a power struggle between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The UAE has witnessed setbacks, particularly in Yemen, where Saudi forces launched operations against the Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC).

• Saudi Arabia’s military action has caused the UAE to withdraw from its military base in Bosaso, Somalia.
• Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, which has an Emirati base, further complicates regional alliances.

Military Operations in Ethiopia

Following the collapse of agreements with the Somali government, Emirati military personnel have been redeployed to Ethiopia. This shift is viewed as crucial for the UAE’s strategy in the region.

• Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has indicated a preference for stronger ties with the UAE.
• There are claims of the UAE influencing Ethiopia’s positions regarding the Sudan government and the RSF.

Cargo Plane Activities

Flight tracking data reveals the An-124 has repeatedly traveled to Harar Meda, the Ethiopian Air Force’s main base. Notable flights include:

• On January 3, it traveled from Abu Dhabi International Airport to Harar Meda.
• Subsequent flights occurred on January 12 and 15, with military operations expanding into Ethiopia.

Concerns Over Arms Supply

Analysts have expressed alarm over these flights, linking them to the increasing military presence and operations of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan. Nathaniel Raymond from Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab stressed the global implications of these logistics.

Recent reports also indicate that the RSF has acquired fighter jets through connections with the Emirati defense contractor International Golden Group.

The Role of Maximus Air

Maximus Air, the operator of the An-124, has faced scrutiny for its role in arms supply. It is reported to serve various military and governmental clients within the UAE.

The company has previously been implicated in a UN report for potentially violating arms embargoes in Libya.

Broader Implications for the Region

The ongoing tension in the Horn of Africa underscores the delicate balance of power influenced by external actors like the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Analysts predict that Ethiopia will continue its alignment with the UAE, which is crucial for both military strategy and regional stability.

As shifts occur, the situation in Sudan remains precarious, affected by both regional alliances and international responses.

Recent developments signal an intensifying geopolitical landscape. Multiple countries in the region are increasingly aligning themselves based on their relationships with the Gulf states.