Ontario Real Estate Slowdown Threatens 100,000 Jobs, Group Warns

A development industry group warns that the ongoing slowdown in Ontario’s real estate market poses a significant threat to employment in the province. According to the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), 2025 marked a historic low in new home sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA). This downturn could jeopardize approximately 100,000 jobs across Ontario.

Record Low Home Sales in 2025

Statistics reveal a sharp decline in new home sales, with only 240 units sold in December 2025. This figure is 24% lower than the previous December and 82% below the 10-year average of 1,327 homes for that month, as reported by Altus Group, BILD’s data partner.

Annual Sales Breakdown

• Total new homes sold in 2025: 5,321
• Single-family homes: 3,247 (63% below the 10-year average)
• Condominiums: 2,067 (89% below the 10-year average)

Edward Jegg, Research Manager at Altus Group, stated, “Never in the 45 years of data collection have we seen such low annual sales.” The figures suggest a troubling trend, mirroring a historical downturn in the 1940s when new home construction collapsed.

Impact on Employment

Justin Sherwood, COO at BILD, emphasized the economic implications of the recent slowdown, asserting that “new home sales are down significantly throughout the province.” This decline jeopardizes tens of thousands of jobs, crucial for the local economy.

Future Market Predictions

With the current trajectory, experts criticize the outlook for Ontario’s housing market in 2026. Ron Butler, an Ontario-based mortgage broker, predicts worsening conditions, stating, “The one thing for sure is that it’s going to get worse in Ontario. There is no possibility of better.”

Market Forecast for Toronto

According to Royal LePage’s December 2026 outlook, home prices nationwide may rise, yet Toronto is expected to experience a decline of 4.5%. Victor Couture, an economic analyst from the University of Toronto, concurs, suggesting that prices may continue to fall unless significant economic growth occurs.

Recommendations for Buyers

Experts recommend caution for prospective homebuyers in the current market. Couture indicates that while there is no immediate “housing crash,” buyers should remain defensive in their decisions. He suggests treating a home as a long-term investment provides a unique opportunity, especially for those planning to reside in their home for five to ten years.

• Advice for first-time buyers: Wait until mid-2026 to assess market conditions
• Consider the long-term value of homeownership

In summary, the Ontario real estate slowdown threatens the economy and employment significantly. With new home sales dropping to record lows, stakeholders must navigate a complex market landscape to mitigate these challenges.