U.S. Emissions Soared in 2025 with Coal Power Resurgence

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U.S. Emissions Soared in 2025 with Coal Power Resurgence

In 2025, the United States experienced a 2.4 percent increase in greenhouse gas emissions, marking the first rise after two years of decline. This resurgence is attributed to a notable revival in coal power, as reported by the Rhodium Group, a research firm.

Factors Behind Emissions Increase

The increase in emissions can be attributed to two primary factors:

  • A surge in electricity demand, particularly driven by the expansion of energy-intensive data centers.
  • Colder winter temperatures that prompted greater reliance on natural gas and fuel oil for heating.

Electric utilities turned to coal to meet this growing demand, burning approximately 13 percent more coal than in 2024.

Shift in Electricity Demand

In recent years, electricity demand in the U.S. has begun to rise sharply, reversing a trend of flat usage seen in the early 2000s and 2010s. In 2025, nationwide demand grew by 2.4 percent, with significant increases observed in:

  • Texas
  • The Mid-Atlantic region
  • The Ohio Valley

This change in consumption patterns led utilities to revert to coal, historically the most polluting fossil fuel. Over the past two decades, many utilities had shifted toward cleaner energy sources, such as natural gas, wind, and solar. However, rising natural gas prices and high demand for home heating made coal a more economically attractive option.

Political Impact and Policy Changes

The emissions increase occurred during President Trump’s return to office, marked by efforts to dismantle climate change policies. Analysts from the Rhodium Group noted that while Trump’s policies are likely to have a growing effect on emissions, they did not significantly impact the 2025 rise. According to Michael Gaffney, a research analyst at Rhodium, weather changes and electricity sector growth were the primary drivers of increased emissions.

Renewable Energy Trends

Despite the coal resurgence, solar power generation saw substantial growth in 2025, increasing by 34 percent, while wind energy grew modestly. Ben King, a director at Rhodium, emphasized that the growth in solar power played a crucial role in mitigating worse emissions outcomes.

Other Contributions to Emissions

Though transportation is a major source of greenhouse gases, emissions in that sector remained stable in 2025. This stability is attributed to rising sales of hybrid and electric vehicles, which have significantly lower emissions than traditional gasoline-powered cars. However, federal subsidies for electric vehicles were eliminated under the current administration.

Furthermore, emissions from oil and gas drilling only rose by 0.5 percent due to improved management practices limiting methane leaks. Between 2015 and 2026, companies appear to have reduced methane emissions per barrel produced by 62 percent. This trend’s future remains uncertain as regulatory delays by the Environmental Protection Agency may hinder further improvements.

Future Emission Projections

Despite a reduction of approximately 18 percent in emissions since 2005, the U.S. is on a trajectory that diverges from the Biden administration’s 2030 emissions reduction goals. The Rhodium Group anticipates that U.S. emissions will decline at a slower rate than previously estimated, primarily due to the impact of recent policies.

The suspension of the E.P.A.’s official greenhouse gas emissions inventory could complicate future emissions estimations. Gaffney highlighted the potential challenges researchers may face in producing accurate projections going forward.

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