Middle East Conflict Drives UK Inflation Surge as Fuel Prices Climb
Analysts say rising fuel costs pushed UK inflation higher in March. The Office for National Statistics will publish official CPI figures on Wednesday morning.
March inflation expectations
Economists expect Consumer Prices Index inflation to rise to about 3.3% in March. That would mark the highest reading since December.
Oxford Economics estimates higher pump prices added roughly 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points to March inflation. The March data will be the first to reflect fuel costs since the late February escalation.
Energy price moves and shipping risks
The conflict involving US-Israeli and Iranian forces since late February has pushed oil and gas prices up. Concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have added to market anxiety.
These developments mean the Middle East conflict is a key factor behind the UK inflation surge as fuel prices climb. Forecasters warn the effects could spread into wider goods and services pricing.
Forecourt prices
RAC data from 16 April shows the average petrol price at UK forecourts was 158.1p per litre. That is about 25p higher than the price on 28 February.
The average diesel price stood at 191.2p per litre. Diesel is roughly 49p dearer than at the conflict’s start.
Outlook from policymakers and institutions
The Bank of England expects inflation could rise to near 3.5% by the third quarter. At the start of the year, the central bank had expected inflation to fall below 2% in April.
The International Monetary Fund warned that surging energy costs could push UK inflation towards 4%. That level would be double the Bank of England’s 2% target.
- Expected CPI for March: 3.3% (consensus).
- BoE projection for Q3: up to 3.5%.
- IMF warning: inflation could approach 4% if energy spikes persist.
- RAC petrol (16 April): 158.1p per litre (+25p since 28 Feb).
- RAC diesel (16 April): 191.2p per litre (+49p since 28 Feb).
Filmogaz.com will follow the ONS release and report updated figures. Markets and households will watch the data closely for signs of further price pressure.
