Europa Conference League Preview: Crystal Palace vs Fiorentina Tips and Predictions
Crystal Palace host Fiorentina in a Europa Conference League quarter-final first leg. Kick-off is Thursday at 20:00 BST and the game will be shown on TNT Sports 3.
Match context
This is Crystal Palace’s first European quarter-final. The club reached this stage after a dramatic extra-time win in Cyprus.
Palace drew 0-0 at Selhurst Park in the first leg. The second leg finished 1-1 after 90 minutes in Cyprus, with the hosts reduced to ten men.
Palace recent form and background
Oliver Glasner’s side have now gone six Conference League matches unbeaten. They have lost just two of ten continental games this season.
Those defeats came to Strasbourg and AEK Larnaca during the league phase. Palace arrived at the quarter-finals as 6/5 competition favourites.
Domestic run
The club suffered a poor spell over the winter. From mid-December to late February they won once in 15 matches.
Palace endured a 12-game winless run. Results during that period read D5 L9.
Recent recovery
Form improved after mid-February. Palace have lost one of their last eight matches, with four wins and three draws recorded.
The sole recent defeat came at Old Trafford, where Palace led until being reduced to ten men.
Home record and competition details
In this Europa Conference League campaign Palace have won two of five home fixtures. The cautious nature of first legs gives the draw clear appeal.
Key player: Ismaila Sarr
Ismaila Sarr has been Palace’s main attacking threat. He has scored 13 goals in 27 appearances across all competitions this season.
In the Conference League he has three goals from four appearances. His goals-per-90 in the competition stands at 0.69.
Fiorentina and disciplinary trends
Fiorentina’s fixtures have not produced as many dismissals. However, their last game against Verona ended with both teams reduced to ten men.
Referee record
Referee Donatas Rumsas has shown a propensity for dismissals in European games. He brandished two red cards in four Conference League matches.
His continental record also includes five reds in 12 Europa League appearances and three in 11 Champions League outings.
Betting markets and tips
Recommended markets reflect scoring and disciplinary trends. Odds quoted come from major firms including bet365, Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair.
- Ismaila Sarr to score anytime — 7/4 (bet365).
- Red card in the match — 13/2 (Sky Bet).
- Both teams to have a red card — 66/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power).
Palace’s recent matches have featured dismissals. Seven of their last 12 games included at least one red card.
Three of Palace’s Conference League ties have seen a sending-off. That makes the red-card markets worth consideration.
Odds correct at 16:50 BST (08/04/26).
Europa Conference League preview, tips and predictions
This preview looks at likely outcomes and market value. Expect a competitive first leg with tight margins.
Given Sarr’s scoring rate, an anytime goal bet represents clear value. The disciplinary history suggests a card-related market may pay off too.
Short prediction
Expect a cautious first leg with goals at a premium. A draw or narrow Palace victory looks plausible.
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