Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Struggle: Analyzing His Baseball Performance Decline
The Chicago Cubs committed $115 million to Pete Crow-Armstrong. The center fielder has since fallen into the game’s most severe slump.
He looked like an MVP contender in the first half of 2025. Now his batting metrics sit near the bottom of the league.
Statistical slide
From Opening Day through Aug. 1, 2025, Crow-Armstrong played 107 games. He hit .273/.309/.560 with 27 homers, 31 doubles and 29 steals.
He finished with a 137 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR in that span. Those numbers marked him as one of baseball’s best two-way players.
| Span | Games | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | RBI | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Day–Aug. 1, 2025 | 107 | .273/.309/.560 | 27 | 78 | 137 |
| Final 50 games, 2025 | 50 | .185/.236/.289 | 4 | 17 | 44 |
| Since Aug. 2, 2025 | 67 | .195/.243/.290 | (included above) | (included above) | 47 |
Recent rate stats
Over 67 games since Aug. 2, he slashed .195/.243/.290. That stretch produced a 47 wRC+, the lowest among 149 qualifiers.
His xwOBA of .270 ranked 145th, while his actual wOBA (.234) was last. His ISO sat at .095 and BABIP at .246.
Plate discipline problems
Approach has driven much of the decline. His walk rate is 4.4%, well below a roughly 9% league average.
In 2025 he chased 41.4% of pitches out of the zone. This season that chase rate rose to 49.2%.
He swung at 80.4% of strikes in 2025. This season that has dropped to 70.9%.
He is chasing more and attacking fewer worthy pitches. The result has been more strikeouts and fewer free passes.
- Strikeout rate: 23.1% in first 107 games (2025).
- Strikeout rate since Aug. 2, 2025: 27.0%.
- Strikeout rate this season: 30.1%.
- Current small-sample: 22 strikeouts and three walks in 17 games.
Breaking pitches and whiffs
He has struggled against offspeed offerings. In 2025 he slugged .716 on curveballs with a 21.5% whiff rate.
Now his curveball slugging is .286 and his whiff rate is 38.5%.
Slider whiffs rose from 34.4% in 2025 to 42.9% this season. Pitchers will exploit that weakness.
Context and outlook
His rookie 2024 numbers look closer to his current form. In 2024 he hit .237/.286/.384 with a 86 wRC+.
That season produced an xwOBA of .286, a wOBA of .289, and an ISO of .148. Those figures mirror recent production.
Fangraphs credits him with -15.9 runs above average during the slide. That mark was the worst in baseball.
Jordan Beck ranked second-worst by wRC+ at 55 during the same stretch, an important comparison.
Analyzing Pete Crow-Armstrong’s struggle and baseball performance decline points to approach and pitch recognition issues. Mechanical fixes alone may not solve it.
He is 24 years old, and recovery remains possible. But there is a real chance the Cubs paid for a peak that was unsustainable.
Filmogaz.com will continue to monitor his progress. The investment and expectations remain under intense scrutiny.
