NBA Power Rankings: Nuggets Shine; How Accurate Were Our Week-One Predictions?

Mo. Basuony

Published: April 10, 2026 11:37 PM ET

NBA Power Rankings: Nuggets Shine; How Accurate Were Our Week-One Predictions?

The season is winding down and Filmogaz.com is revisiting predictions from Week One. This piece evaluates where teams stand now. It compares early forecasts to current records and metrics through Sunday’s action.

Our review focuses on the NBA Power Rankings and checks how accurate Week-One predictions proved. Particular attention goes to Denver, whose offense stands out. We also note teams that over- or under-performed versus early expectations.

Method and tiers

The rankings use five tiers to group teams by current form and outlook. Rankings combine objective stats and a forward-looking judgment. The tiers are Top Contenders, In a Good Place, The Bubble, Not the Tier to Fear, and Basement Floor.

Top Contenders

Oklahoma City Thunder — 62-16

Last ranked No. 2. Recent results: wins over Detroit, Lakers, and Utah. Offensive rating: 117.6 (7th). Defensive rating: 106.0 (1st).
Week One prediction: first in West and NBA champions in six. They reached 60 wins and secured home-court chances.
San Antonio Spurs — 59-19

Last ranked No. 1. Recent results: wins over Chicago, Golden State, and LA Clippers; loss at Denver. Offensive rating: 118.6 (5th).
Defensive rating: 110.2 (3rd). Week One: projected 10th in West, into Play-In, and exit to Thunder.
Detroit Pistons — 57-21

Last ranked No. 3. Recent results include a loss at Oklahoma City and wins over Toronto and Minnesota. Offensive rating: 116.9 (10th).
Defensive rating: 108.6 (2nd). Week One forecast: seventh in East and early playoff exit.
Boston Celtics — 53-25

Last ranked No. 4. Recent week: loss at Atlanta, wins at Miami and Milwaukee, and a home win over Toronto. Offensive rating: 119.9 (2nd).
Defensive rating: 111.7 (4th). Week One: predicted to miss playoffs.
Denver Nuggets — 50-28

Last ranked No. 8. Recent wins at Utah and over San Antonio created a long streak. Offensive rating: 120.8 (1st).
Defensive rating: 116.0 (21st). Week One projection: fourth in West and early playoff exit versus Lakers.

In a Good Place

Houston Rockets — 49-29

Last ranked No. 10. Recent wins over New York, Milwaukee, Utah, and at Golden State. Offensive rating: 117.2 (8th).
Defensive rating: 112.2 (6th). Week One predicted sixth in West and semifinal exit to Clippers.
Cleveland Cavaliers — 49-29

Last ranked No. 5. Results included a win at Utah and victories at Golden State and vs. Indiana. Offensive rating: 118.1 (6th).
Defensive rating: 114.0 (14th). Week One forecast: fourth in East with a second-round exit.
Charlotte Hornets — 43-36

Last ranked No. 16. Recent four-game stretch features road wins and home victories. Offensive rating: 118.7 (4th).
Defensive rating: 113.4 (12th). Week One projection: miss playoffs.
New York Knicks — 50-28

Last ranked No. 7. Last week: loss at Houston, wins at Memphis and versus Chicago. Offensive rating: 118.8 (3rd).
Defensive rating: 112.3 (8th). Week One: projected first in East and Finals loss to Thunder.
Atlanta Hawks — 45-33

Last ranked No. 12. Recent wins over Boston, Orlando, and Brooklyn. Offensive rating: 115.1 (13th).
Defensive rating: 112.7 (9th). Week One forecast: second in East and semifinal exit.

The Bubble

Los Angeles Lakers — 50-28

Last ranked No. 6. Week included wins over Washington and Cleveland, losses at Oklahoma City and Dallas. Offensive rating: 117.0 (9th).
Defensive rating: 115.7 (20th). Week One: picked fifth in West with a Thunder exit.
Philadelphia 76ers — 43-35

Last ranked No. 13. Recent mix: loss at Miami, wins at Washington and vs. Minnesota, loss vs. Detroit. Offensive rating: 114.7 (15th).
Defensive rating: 114.9 (17th). Week One: sixth in East, early playoff exit.
Minnesota Timberwolves — 46-32

Last ranked No. 9. Week featured a road win at Dallas and losses at Detroit and Philadelphia. Offensive rating: 115.1 (14th).
Defensive rating: 112.1 (5th). Week One: seventh in West and quarterfinal exit.
Toronto Raptors — 43-35

Last ranked No. 11. Recent week: loss at Detroit, loss vs. Sacramento, win at Memphis, loss at Boston. Offensive rating: 114.5 (16th).
Defensive rating: 112.3 (7th). Week One: eighth in East and Play-In elimination.
Orlando Magic — 42-36

Last ranked No. 18. Week included wins over Phoenix and Dallas, plus a loss to Atlanta. Offensive rating: 114.0 (18th).
Defensive rating: 114.0 (15th). Week One: third in East with a deep playoff prediction.
Miami Heat — 41-37

Last ranked No. 17. Results: win vs. Philadelphia, loss vs. Boston, win vs. Washington. Offensive rating: 115.4 (12th).
Defensive rating: 113.4 (11th). Week One: ninth in East and Play-In elimination.
Phoenix Suns — 43-35

Last ranked No. 14. Recent results included a win at Memphis and losses at Orlando and Charlotte. Offensive rating: 114.3 (17th).
Defensive rating: 112.9 (10th). Week One: predicted to miss playoffs.
Portland Trail Blazers — 40-38

Last ranked No. 19. Recent wins at the Clippers and vs. New Orleans. Offensive rating: 112.9 (21st).
Defensive rating: 113.5 (13th). Week One: not expected to make playoffs.
LA Clippers — 40-38

Last ranked No. 15. Week included a loss to Portland and San Antonio, plus a win at Sacramento. Offensive rating: 116.6 (11th).
Defensive rating: 115.2 (19th). Week One: projected second in West and Thunder upset in conference finals.

Not the Tier to Fear

Golden State Warriors — 36-42

Last ranked No. 20. Recent results: losses to San Antonio, Cleveland, and Houston. Offensive rating: 113.8 (19th).
Defensive rating: 114.1 (16th). Week One: expected third in West with a Rockets matchup in quarterfinals.
Milwaukee Bucks — 31-47

Last ranked No. 24. Week included wins over Dallas and Memphis, and losses at Houston and vs. Boston. Offensive rating: 112.2 (25th).
Defensive rating: 118.1 (26th). Week One: tipped for a Play-In berth and a Knicks exit.
Dallas Mavericks — 25-53

Last ranked No. 23. Recent run saw losses to Minnesota and Milwaukee before a win over Los Angeles. Offensive rating: 109.7 (29th).
Defensive rating: 115.1 (18th). Week One: predicted to miss playoffs.
Chicago Bulls — 29-49

Last ranked No. 22. Week included multiple losses to San Antonio, Indiana, New York, and Phoenix. Offensive rating: 112.2 (24th).
Defensive rating: 117.8 (23rd). Week One: expected to miss Play-In.
Memphis Grizzlies — 25-53

Last ranked No. 21. Recent games were losses to Phoenix, New York, Toronto, and Milwaukee. Offensive rating: 112.8 (22nd).
Defensive rating: 117.8 (24th). Week One: predicted to reach Play-In then lose.
New Orleans Pelicans — 25-54

Last ranked No. 25. Recent losses at Portland and Sacramento continued an extended slide. Offensive rating: 113.0 (20th).
Defensive rating: 117.4 (22nd). Week One: expected to miss playoffs.

Basement Floor

Sacramento Kings — 21-58

Last ranked No. 29. Recent week: wins at Toronto and vs. New Orleans, and a loss to LA Clippers. Offensive rating: 110.4 (26th).
Defensive rating: 120.4 (28th). Week One: projected Play-In defeat and a lower seed finish.
Indiana Pacers — 18-60

Last ranked No. 26. Recent week results included a win at Chicago and losses at Charlotte and Cleveland. Offensive rating: 110.3 (27th).
Defensive rating: 118.3 (27th). Week One: expected to reach conference quarterfinals.
Brooklyn Nets — 19-59

Last ranked No. 27. Recent losses to Charlotte and Atlanta preceded a win over Washington. Offensive rating: 108.5 (30th).
Defensive rating: 118.1 (25th). Week One: forecasted to miss playoffs.
Utah Jazz — 21-58

Last ranked No. 30. Week included losses to Cleveland, Denver, Houston, and Oklahoma City. Offensive rating: 112.7 (23rd).
Defensive rating: 121.2 (29th). Week One: predicted to miss playoffs.
Washington Wizards — 17-61

Last ranked No. 28. Recent losses at LA, Philadelphia, Miami, and Brooklyn continued the slide. Offensive rating: 109.9 (28th).
Defensive rating: 121.3 (30th). Week One: projected to miss playoffs and finish last in East.

How accurate were the early forecasts?

Several Week One calls missed the mark. Some underestimated teams soared. Other predictions were closer to reality.

Examples: the Thunder, Spurs, and Pistons reached elite records. The Spurs were forecasted to scrape into the Play-In. They instead almost claimed top seed.

Conversely, the Celtics were predicted to miss the playoffs. They instead produced a top-tier offense and fought through injuries.

Notable trends

Denver leads the league in offensive rating. Their defense ranks lower.
San Antonio and Oklahoma City boast elite defensive numbers.
Several teams exceeded expectations due to depth and defensive identity.

Final thoughts

The Week-One predictions offered a useful baseline. But the season produced surprising turns. Filmogaz.com will continue tracking outcomes as playoffs approach.

Overall, this review of the NBA Power Rankings shows which forecasts held up. It also highlights the teams that rewrote their own narratives.