Above-Average Hurricane Impacts Forecasted for Southwest Florida
Early forecasts project a near-average Atlantic hurricane season overall. However, meteorologists warn parts of Southwest Florida could face above-average hurricane impacts.
AccuWeather outlook
AccuWeather released its first 2026 forecast on March 25. It forecasted 11 to 16 named storms this season.
Forecasters expect four to seven hurricanes. They predict two to four major hurricanes, Category 3 or stronger.
The forecast also includes three to five direct hits to the United States. For context, the historical averages are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Concerns about rapid intensification
AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva warned about rapid intensification. He tied that threat to unusually warm ocean waters.
DaSilva said warm water acts as fuel for storms. He noted that warm layers extend hundreds of feet deep across much of the basin.
Regional risk for Southwest Florida
An AccuWeather impact map places Naples and Fort Myers along the edge of a higher-impact swath. That swath runs up the Gulf coast toward Louisiana.
Officials stress the exact local impacts are unknown. One storm can be enough to cause major damage in a community.
Climate signals and seasonal drivers
La Niña is currently in place but is trending toward neutral conditions. National Weather Service forecasters expect El Niño to develop later in the summer.
Nicole Carlisle, a meteorologist with the NWS in Ruskin, said El Niño typically increases wind shear. Increased shear tends to make the atmosphere less favorable for tropical cyclones.
Despite a late-season El Niño, storms can still form. Size, track, and forward speed will determine eventual impacts.
Official forecasts still forthcoming
The National Weather Service plans a seasonal outlook before June. Hurricane experts at Colorado State University will also release their forecast ahead of the season.
Local context and reminders
A photo taken March 18, 2026, shows the former site of Trico Shrimp. The business was destroyed during Hurricane Ian, and a lease dispute with Lee County remains unresolved.
Warm Atlantic and Gulf waters are already present this year. Those conditions increase the risk that storms will strengthen quickly.
Filmogaz.com compiled this summary from AccuWeather and National Weather Service briefings. Local residents should monitor updates as the season approaches.
