Myanmar Civil War: Five-Year Impact on India’s Act East Policy

Myanmar marked the fifth year of its civil war following the 2021 overthrow of the elected government. This analysis examines Myanmar Civil War: Five-Year Impact on India’s Act East Policy and the strategic ripple effects for the region.

Military and political landscape

Myanmar’s military has dominated politics since 1962. The coup in 2021 prompted the formation of the People’s Defence Force on May 5, 2021.

Ethnic armed groups have long resisted the Bamar-dominated state. The Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army formed a Three Brotherhood Alliance.

Since the coup, the PDF has coordinated with ethnic rebels. Recent estimates place junta control at only 21–25 percent of the country.

That implies more than 75 percent of territory lies outside firm junta control. The state is widely regarded as the weakest since independence in 1948.

Major urban centers, including Mandalay, face pressure from anti-regime forces. Declining troop morale has further degraded the military’s position.

The National Unity Government of ousted lawmakers has gained visibility. A diaspora-led Myanmar Policy Institute poll found about 74 percent backing for anti-junta forces like the PDF and NUG.

Humanitarian toll and border security

The conflict has produced roughly three million internally displaced people. Large numbers have fled fighting zones, with some crossing into India’s northeastern states.

Porous borders and cross-border ethnic ties make the spillover complex. These movements add pressure to already fragile social balances in India’s Northeast.

Impact on connectivity projects

Key land and sea corridors now face delays. Two flagship projects illustrate the disruption.

• Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project aims to link India’s eastern seaport to Sittwe and onward to Mizoram. The Paletwa–Mizoram road segment remains unfinished.
• The India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway has seen partial completion. Thailand’s section is done, but roughly 30 percent of the overall route is incomplete. The Kalewa–Yagyi stretch is critically stalled.

These setbacks hinder India’s plans to deepen continental ties with Southeast Asia. A stable Myanmar is essential for both projects to succeed.

Strategic implications for India

India has moved from a Look East posture to an Act East posture since 2014. The shift emphasizes strategic engagement, not just trade.

New and upgraded strategic partnerships across Southeast Asia reflect that change. India has promoted connectivity as a key pillar of its regional policy.

In response to Myanmar’s turmoil, New Delhi has adopted a pragmatic stance. It keeps channels open with both the junta and various ethnic or anti-junta actors.

This dual-track approach aims to manage immediate security risks. It also preserves options to pursue long-term goals, including balancing China’s influence.

Mainstreaming the Northeast

India’s northeastern states are the land bridge to Southeast Asia. Integrating the region into national strategy is now more urgent.

Mainstreaming infrastructure, development, and security planning will affect India’s regional reach. How New Delhi manages its gateway will shape its 21st-century trajectory.

Filmogaz.com recommends clear strategic planning for both short-term contingencies and long-term regional ambitions. The Myanmar conflict will continue to test India’s Act East objectives.