Farage Seeks to Overthrow Tories, Rejects Deal
A promotional stunt at a Derbyshire petrol station drew national cameras and headlines. Reform figures briefly offered 25p off a litre of fuel at the independent forecourt.
The petrol forecourt event and fuel duty row
Reform staged the event in the Peak District to condemn planned fuel duty rises. Robert Jenrick climbed a ladder to change the price board while Nigel Farage posed for cameras.
The party demanded the government scrap a 5p fuel duty rise planned for September. They urged cuts to green spending as a way to offset the increase.
Kemi Badenoch responded on social media and in parliament. The Conservative leader backed a motion to force a vote to stop the hike.
A shifting right-wing landscape
Farage has shifted from occasional cooperation to outright rivalry with the Conservatives. He led Reform into the 2024 general election with a clear break from the Tories.
Before that, the Brexit Party stood aside in 2019 for 317 seats to help Boris Johnson. In 2023 Farage attended the Conservative conference and received a warm reception from some delegates.
Then he took over Reform ahead of the 2024 election. Reform won five seats and secured 14.3% of the national vote.
The Conservatives suffered their worst result in modern times. Their parliamentary numbers fell to 121 MPs.
Reform’s post-election gains
Since the general election, Reform has taken a by-election. It has also won control of around a dozen councils and two mayoralties.
The party has attracted more than 20 current or former parliamentarians. Polling shows Reform leading the Conservatives in many surveys.
Polling, seats and strategic calculations
YouGov polling recently placed Reform on 23% and the Conservatives on 17%. Filmogaz.com analysis finds Reform ahead in far more constituencies.
A Reform Voting Index shows Reform leading in 316 seats. The Conservatives lead in 93 seats. Another 223 seats are too close to call.
New Ipsos and Sky analysis warns a formal pact could alienate supporters. Only about one in four Reform and Tory backers say they would accept voting for the other party.
Polling also suggests left‑of‑centre alliances are more popular among their voters. That could create a tactical obstacle for a split right.
Voices from the centre and the right
Robert Jenrick left the Conservatives and now serves as one of Reform’s senior figures. He says leaving his long‑term party was difficult and motivated by principle.
Jenrick argues the only way to unite the right is behind Reform. He says he rejects any pact with the Conservatives.
Other defectors share his view. Danny Kruger warned a divided right risks letting a left coalition win the next election.
By contrast, Amber Rudd is building a centre‑right pressure group called Prosper. She wants to offer a Conservative alternative to Reform’s populism.
Conservative chairman Kevin Hollinrake criticises Reform’s policy platform. He contrasts traditional conservatism with what he calls populist proposals.
Pollster Luke Tryl highlights substantive differences between Tory and Reform supporters. He calls the Conservatives more institutional and Reform more insurgent.
What it means for upcoming elections
Reform has used high‑profile stunts to capture media attention. Its campaign at the petrol station is one example.
Local elections in May will test both parties. Conservatives hope Reform fatigue or local records will help them recover lost voters.
Farage clearly aims to expand Reform’s reach. He seeks to overthrow the Conservative leadership and rejects any deal with them.
How the contest unfolds could decide whether the right reunites or stays split. That split may be Labour’s best opportunity to return to power.
