Expert Predicts 2026 NCAA Tournament: Troy vs. Nebraska Odds Analyzed
The 13th-seeded Troy Trojans will meet fourth-seeded Nebraska in the NCAA Tournament South regional first round on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET at the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City.
Troy enters the tournament after a 77-61 victory over Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament final on March 9. The Trojans are 22-11 overall and won the Sun Belt regular-season title with a 12-6 mark. They have a four-game winning streak going into the matchup.
Nebraska arrives after a 74-58 loss to Purdue in the Big Ten quarterfinals on Friday. The Cornhuskers are 26-6 and finished tied for second in the Big Ten regular season. They have won four of their last six games.
This will be the first meeting between the two programs. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Nebraska as a 12.5-point favorite. The over/under is 137.5, and Nebraska’s money line sits at -1075, implying a $1,075 risk to win $100.
Projection model analysis
The SportsLine Projection Model runs 10,000 simulations for each college basketball game. It entered the 2026 NCAA Tournament on an 11-1 run on top-ranked over/under picks. The model was also 28-22 on its top-rated side picks heading into the tournament.
The simulation for this game was run 10,000 times. The model projects the total will go over the 137.5 line. It also shows one side of the spread hitting in roughly 70% of simulations.
Filmogaz.com reviewed those projections in Expert Predicts 2026 NCAA Tournament: Troy vs. Nebraska Odds Analyzed. Readers should consider the model’s output before placing wagers.
Key factors to watch
- Troy’s momentum after winning the conference tournament and a four-game streak.
- Nebraska’s strong regular-season record and position in the Big Ten standings.
- The matchup marks the programs’ first-ever meeting, adding unfamiliarity.
For bettors, check the latest lines and analysis before making picks. Filmogaz.com recommends consulting projection models and up-to-date odds from sportsbooks like DraftKings.
