11 Teams with a Real Shot to Win the NCAA Tournament

Mo. Basuony

Published: March 18, 2026 10:43 PM ET

11 Teams with a Real Shot to Win the NCAA Tournament

Similarly, 26 of the past 28 title teams ranked inside the top 20 for adjusted offensive efficiency. They also ranked inside the top 40 for adjusted defensive efficiency. The two outliers were UConn in 2014 and Baylor in 2021.

Only 11 teams meet those combined offensive and defensive thresholds this season. Filmogaz.com highlights those squads as having a real shot to win this NCAA Tournament.

The favorites

Duke (32-2)

Duke features freshman Cameron Boozer, a 6-foot-9 forward listed at about 250 pounds. He shoots 40.9 percent from three this season and creates matchup problems.

Jon Scheyer’s roster ranks top five in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. That balance made the Blue Devils historically strong before injuries.

Concerns center on health. Point guard Caleb Foster broke his right foot on March 7 and is out for the foreseeable future. Center Patrick Ngongba missed ACC tournament action with foot soreness.

Arizona (33-2)

Tommy Lloyd’s Arizona is deeply balanced. Seven players average between nine and 16 points per game.

Jaden Bradley won Big 12 Player of the Year and hit a Big 12 tournament buzzer-beater against Iowa State. Freshman Brayden Burries leads the team in points and three-pointers.

Koa Peat, a 6-8 freshman, produced 30 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals in Arizona’s season opener against a top opponent. Still, the Wildcats attempt only 26.8 percent of their shots from three, the fourth-lowest rate in Division I.

Michigan (31-3)

The Wolverines defend at an elite level and rank first in adjusted defensive efficiency. The team fields three long, physical bigs.

Center Aday Mara stands 7-foot-3 and affects shots around the rim. Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg are 6-9 rim protectors and rebounders. Point guard Elliot Cadeau helps the offense flow.

Turnovers pose a problem. Michigan turns the ball over on 16.9 percent of possessions. Reserve guard L.J. Cason tore an ACL in late February and will miss the tournament.

Florida (26-7)

Florida enters as the defending national champion. Todd Golden runs lineups with size and spacing.

Thomas Haugh, a 6-9 junior wing, helps connect perimeter and post play. Center Alex Condon averages roughly 15 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.4 blocks per game. Forward Rueben Chinyelu averages 11.5 rebounds, second-most nationally.

Per Bart Torvik, Florida is among four teams with top-10 adjusted offense and defense. The primary concern is inconsistent three-point shooting from the backcourt.

Other top contenders

Houston (28-6)

Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars return multiple starters from last year’s runner-up team. Emanuel Sharp was on the final possession in last April’s title game.

Houston ranks inside the top 15 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The roster blends Sampson’s defensive identity with more balance than usual.

Concerns include limited, proven interior scoring. JoJo Tugler and freshman Chris Cenac Jr. have not yet shown consistent paint production. Guards sometimes settle for too many threes.

Iowa State (27-7)

TJ Otzelberger’s Cyclones opened the season 16-0 and beat Purdue, St. John’s, Houston and Texas Tech. Their defense ranks fourth in adjusted efficiency and turnover percentage.

Joshua Jefferson averages 16.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.7 steals. Milan Momcilovic shoots better than 45 percent from three on significant volume. Senior point guard Tamin Lipsey anchors the defense.

Depth and free throws are vulnerabilities. Otzelberger relies on six players for 24-plus minutes. The team shoots only 67.2 percent from the charity stripe.

Honorable mentions

Illinois: The Balkan Bloc fueled one of college basketball’s best offenses. The Illini rank high in offensive rebounding and free-throw percentage.
Purdue: The Boilermakers boast the top offense by adjusted efficiency. Their defense, ranked 36th, allows 53.1 percent on two-point attempts.
Vanderbilt: The Commodores feature a top-10 offense and excellent free-throw shooting. They lack frontcourt size and lost Frankie Collins midseason.
Louisville: The Cardinals are deep and have elite perimeter shooting from multiple players. Mikel Brown Jr. is questionable for the opener.
Texas Tech: Grant McCasland leaned on Christian Anderson, who averages 18.9 points and 7.6 assists. JT Toppin suffered a season-ending ACL tear, and the team has stumbled late.

Filmogaz.com examined data-driven trends and team profiles to identify the 11 teams most likely to win. Analytics and balance remain the clearest path to the title.