‘Super El Niño’ Could Push Global Temperatures Higher as El Niño Southern Oscillation Readies Shift
Forecasters say the ongoing La Niña is likely to finish and a warming phase in the tropical Pacific could bring the El Niño Southern Oscillation into play, with a potentially powerful “super El Niño” capable of pushing global temperatures to unprecedented highs.
What Forecasters Are Saying About El Niño Southern Oscillation
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center announced there is a 62% chance of El Niño emerging between June and August. Forecasters predict the current La Niña — the cold phase of the climate pattern — is about to end, and that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are expected to warm.
How a Super El Niño Could Affect Global Temperatures and U. S. Weather
Forecasters warn that if El Niño does emerge as anticipated, it could intensify into a “super El Niño, ” a rare condition defined by much warmer-than-average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Models and commentary linked to the outlook suggest such an event could push temperatures across the globe to unprecedented extremes.
During El Niño, warmer waters gather east of the equatorial Pacific and push the jet stream south. That pattern typically brings warmer, drier conditions to the northern United States while increasing flooding risk along the Gulf Coast and in the southeastern United States.
When El Niño Could Form and What Triggers It
The tropical Pacific is currently in La Niña, characterized by sea surface temperatures falling at least 0. 9 degrees Fahrenheit (0. 5 degrees Celsius) below the long-term average. La Niña is expected to end in the coming weeks as the ocean surface warms. El Niño will be declared if sea surface temperatures rise to and remain at least 0. 9 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average.
Some forecasts further indicate that a super El Niño would occur if sea surface temperatures reach at least 3. 6 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average. Forecasters are tracking ocean warming closely as the seasonal window for an El Niño onset approaches.
Officials and climate analysts involved in the outlook plan to update guidance as ocean conditions evolve and as the typical summer window nears for El Niño development. For now, the key developments are the expected end of La Niña, the elevated probability of El Niño between June and August, and the possibility that any emerging El Niño could strengthen into a supercharged event with broad climate impacts.
