Upcoming Movies: Highlights for the Week of March 2, 2026

The Australian economy is under scrutiny as it prepares for the fourth-quarter GDP announcement on March 4, 2026. The previous quarter highlighted some significant trends and challenges that might shape future projections.

Key Highlights of AU Q3 GDP

In the third quarter of 2025, Australia recorded a quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.4%. This figure fell short of the 0.7% consensus forecast but was enough to sustain an annual growth rate of 2.1%. This growth marked the 16th consecutive quarter of economic expansion.

Per Capita GDP Performance

• In Q3 2025, per capita GDP remained unchanged at 0.0% quarter-on-quarter. This followed a 0.3% increase in the previous quarter.

Household Economic Indicators

• The household saving-to-income ratio rose from 6.0% to 6.4%, indicating stronger nominal disposable income growth compared to spending.
• Household spending experienced a growth of 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 0.3 percentage points to GDP, despite slowing from a revised 0.7% growth in the prior quarter.

Contributing Factors and Challenges

• Inventories negatively impacted GDP growth by -0.5 percentage points, primarily due to mining stock reductions to accommodate coal export demands.
• Net trade also detracted from growth, with imports increasing by 1.5% while exports rose by only 1.0%, leading to a -0.1 percentage point reduction.

Productivity and Government Spending

• Labour productivity, measured as GDP per hour worked, saw a modest rise of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 0.8% over the year.
• Government spending increased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 0.2 percentage points mainly due to funding in health, education, and social welfare initiatives.

Public and Private Investment Trends

Public investment rebounded by 3.0% quarter-on-quarter, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP. This surge followed three consecutive declines, driven by enhancements in renewable energy, water infrastructure, and domestic defense initiatives. Notably, private investment grew significantly by 2.9% quarter-on-quarter, particularly in machinery and equipment for data centers.

Looking Ahead to Q4 2025

Market expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 hover around a GDP growth of approximately 0.6%, while the annual rate remains close to 2.1%. This figure is just shy of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December 2025 forecast of 2.3% for the year.