Is Mexico’s Daniel Zellhuber the worst betting favorite in UFC history? daniel zellhuber
daniel zellhuber entered the Octagon at UFC Mexico City on Saturday as a heavy favorite, hoping to end a worrisome two-fight losing streak. The Mexican-born UFC lightweight instead left stunned after a late second-round TKO at the hands of 39-year-old King Green.
Daniel Zellhuber stunned in Mexico City
Zellhuber came into the fight in Mexico City expecting to use his striking ability and long reach to control the bout. He closed as a -410 favorite to capture the win, but King Green, a 39-year-old who was 2-3 in his last five UFC fights coming into the weekend, delivered a devastating TKO finish late into the second round. Zellhuber was stunned, and Green and those who backed the aging veteran walked off with the upset win. The original coverage noted highlights were available for review.
King Green’s late second-round TKO
The finish came late in round two and was ruled a TKO. The sequence left Zellhuber unable to continue after absorbing the decisive strikes, concluding the bout before the final horn. Green had returned to the win column in his previous outing and capitalized on the opportunity to upset a heavy favorite here.
Losses as a heavy betting favorite
The Mexico City defeat is not an isolated case for Zellhuber. His last outing before UFC Mexico City was a decision loss to 39-year-old veteran Michael Johnson in July 2025. Zellhuber closed as a -900 betting favorite to get past "Menace, " but landed only 52 total significant strikes to Johnson's 81. A March 1, 2026 post listed that Zellhuber has now lost as a -430 favorite against Trey Ogden, a -900 favorite against Michael Johnson, and a -410 favorite against Bobby Green — a run the post described as one we may never see again.
2022 debut setback and rebound
Back in 2022, Zellhuber dropped a shocking decision loss to UFC lightweight Trey Odgen while making his UFC debut. Zellhuber was undefeated at the time and closed as a -430 betting favorite, but he was out-pointed by Ogden and suffered the first loss of his pro MMA career. He would go on to win his next three UFC fights after that defeat.
Striking ability and betting implications
Despite clear striking ability and the long reach that made him an easy bet in several matchups, daniel zellhuber’s record as a betting favorite now includes multiple high-profile upsets. The pattern — losses as a -430 favorite, a -900 favorite and a -410 favorite — has prompted renewed discussion about whether he is a reliable choice for bettors, even while he remains regarded as a talented fighter and one of the toughest guys outside of the lightweight top 15.
For bettors and fans, the sequence of outcomes — the 2022 debut loss, the July 2025 decision defeat to Michael Johnson with its 52-to-81 significant-strike disparity, and the late second-round TKO loss to King Green at UFC Mexico City — forms a distinct record that will follow Zellhuber in future odds and lines.
Zellhuber’s talent is not in question, but the recent results have made his standing as a betting favorite a major talking point in MMA circles.
