Jeff Green; jeff green: Trade Desk Slides After Guidance Miss

The Trade Desk’s shares slipped after the company beat fourth-quarter forecasts but issued a softer-than-expected outlook for the first quarter of 2026, a combination that sent the stock lower in the afternoon session; jeff green

Guidance miss and jeff green

The stock fell about 4. 2% in the afternoon session after management projected first-quarter revenue of at least $678 million, short of an analyst consensus near $688. 1 million, and set adjusted EBITDA guidance at $195 million versus analyst expectations around $222. 4 million. The revenue outlook implied a deceleration in year-over-year growth to roughly 10. 1%, down from 14. 3% in the fourth quarter. Investors homed in on the outlook even though fourth-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA topped forecasts.

Jeff Green and investor reaction

Market volatility has been pronounced: the stock has recorded 28 moves greater than 5% over the last year, and the recent guidance shortfall added to prior unease after uneven quarters. Year to date the shares are down roughly 35. 7%, and the company’s stock was trading at $24. 22 per share during the cited session, about 73% below its 52-week high of $89. 76 from August 2025. A hypothetical $1, 000 investment five years ago would now be worth approximately $300. 70, illustrating how sentiment shifts have weighed on returns.

AI replacement narrative pressure

Investor concern about AI-driven disruption has been a recurring theme. A prior sell-off about three weeks earlier coincided with fresh model releases that intensified the “AI replacement” narrative. New model capabilities referenced in the market discussion included autonomous auditing and “software hunting” features and agent platforms that can bypass traditional enterprise interfaces to perform tasks directly. Those developments prompted debate over whether frontier models could commoditize workflows and pressure recurring-license revenue models, and that discussion remains a background risk for software and platform valuations.

Analysis: the immediate driver of the session’s decline was the combination of the guidance miss and weaker adjusted EBITDA expectations. Observable indicators from the company’s guidance—projected revenue of at least $678 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $195 million—provide concrete benchmarks investors will watch. If revenue growth remains near the implied 10. 1% and adjusted EBITDA stays below consensus, the market may continue to reprice near-term expectations for profitability.

Forward look: upcoming trading days and quarterly commentary will be important. Management commentary on demand trends, client retention and any further updates to cost or margin plans will be the observable inputs that could change the trajectory. Separately, how the broader debate over AI-driven software substitution evolves—measured by subsequent model launches, enterprise adoption patterns, and comparable vendor guidance—will be a conditional factor for investor posture.

• Key takeaways: the quarter beat but guidance disappointed; the stock fell ~4. 2% in-session; revenue guidance missed consensus and adjusted EBITDA guidance missed estimates.

Uncertainties remain about the persistence of the slowdown and the extent to which AI narratives will alter software revenue models. Those uncertainties are reflected in the stock’s recent volatility and in the gap between the company’s guidance and analyst expectations.