Francis Marshall (francis marshall) Poised to Make It Emphatic in UFC Mexico City

francis marshall faces Erik Silva on Saturday, February 28, 2026, at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh in Mexico City, and the matchup matters because heavy betting lines and contrasting style metrics suggest a clear path for a decisive performance.

Francis Marshall Wants To Make It Emphatic

The 26-year-old featherweight has framed this bout as a chance to eliminate close decisions and produce a definitive result. He has worked on pressure striking and grappling in his most recent camp and has said he wants a finish or a dominant performance so judges are not needed. Since earning his UFC contract the Contender Series in 2022, his run has included hard-fought wins and narrow defeats, with two of those losses coming by split decision.

Erik Silva vs francis marshall Odds and Stats

Oddsmakers show a clear market preference: Silva is listed at +525 while Marshall is at -700. Records and physicals line up as follows from the matchup data: Silva is 9-3-0, 38 years old, listed at 145 lbs, 5'9" with a 71" reach; Marshall is 8-3-0, 26 years old, 145 lbs, 5'9" with a 72" reach.

Striking and grappling indicators point to contrasting approaches. Silva lands 2. 07 significant strikes per minute and is credited with landing 70% of the significant strikes he throws, while Marshall averages 3. 46 significant strikes per minute with a 33% landing rate. On defense, Silva takes 1. 57 significant strikes per minute and stops 40% of opponents' significant strikes; Marshall allows 4. 10 significant strikes per minute and curbs 54% of strikes thrown at him.

Wrestling numbers favor Silva: he attempts 3. 76 takedowns per 15 minutes and converts on 80% of those takedown attempts, while defending 62% of opponents' takedowns. Marshall converts 44% of his takedown attempts and defends 66% of the takedowns his opponents try. Submission volume is modest for both: Silva averages 0. 7 submission attempts per three rounds, Marshall 0. 4 per three rounds.

Recent results are mixed: Silva most recently lost a leg injury in round 1 and landed 0 of 1 total strikes in that bout; his opponent landed 3 of 4 total strikes. Marshall last lost by split decision, connecting on 39 of 143 significant strikes (27%) and landing 100% of his distance significant strikes in that fight, while his opponent landed 58 of 129 significant strikes.

What to Watch Early Saturday Afternoon ET

Preliminary action begins early Saturday afternoon ET at Arena CDMX. Key match-flow scenarios to monitor: if Marshall can force a higher-volume, pressure-fighting pace while improving accuracy, he may secure the kind of dominant outcome he has described wanting. If Silva successfully imposes wrestling and takedowns at his noted conversion rate, he can change the fight’s geography and limit Marshall’s striking output.

• Heavy market lean: Marshall favored at -700; Silva an underdog at +525.
• Contrasting edges: Marshall in volume; Silva in takedown conversion and strike efficiency.
• Finish potential is central: Marshall has trained for decisive outcomes; Silva’s wrestling and submissions present alternate paths.

All figures above are drawn from the published matchup statistics and recent fight outcomes. The fight presents clear, measurable indicators to watch in real time: strike volume versus strike accuracy, takedown attempts and conversion, and whether either competitor can force a finish before the judges are needed.