New Mexico State Basketball at Middle Tennessee: Pregame, Odds and How to Watch

The New Mexico State basketball team travels to Murphy Center to face Middle Tennessee on Feb. 28, with tip scheduled for 2: 00 pm ET. The matchup matters now because the betting market and predictive models have set clear expectations in advance of tipoff, shaping wagering and matchup narratives for both sides.

New Mexico State Basketball matchup notes

The New Mexico State Aggies visit Murfreesboro for a single-game meeting with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders. Tipoff is slated for 2: 00 pm ET at Murphy Center on Feb. 28. New Mexico State enters the game with statistical markers that highlight both strengths and weaknesses; those figures will be central to game plans and how the market prices the matchup.

Betting lines and model forecasts

The betting market lists Middle Tennessee as the favorite with a spread of -6. 5 (moneyline pricing shown at -102 on the spread). The over/under for the game is set at 146. 5 total points. A predictive winning model gives Middle Tennessee a 68. 7% chance to win based on simulations that factor injuries, player performance and matchups. A spread-focused model places the probability that Middle Tennessee will cover at 55. 6%.

Key statistical edges and outlook

New Mexico State brings a few notable statistical edges: an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1. 3 (366 assists, 285 turnovers) this season, tied for best among Conference USA teams while the league average stands at 1. 2. The Aggies average 10. 6 turnovers per game (285 turnovers over 27 games), which ranks as the third-best mark among Conference USA teams compared with a league average of 11. 5. However, New Mexico State’s true shooting percentage is 46%, tied for the fourth-lowest in the conference; the league average is 47%.

Defensively, New Mexico State has limited opponents from long range, allowing 30% shooting from three (425 makes on 1, 410 attempts) since the start of the 2024-25 season, which ranks third-best among Division I teams while the overall Division I average is 34%.

Middle Tennessee’s recent seasonal numbers show offensive constraints: a 30% three-point rate last season on 221 makes from 724 attempts, and an average of 65. 0 points per game (2, 014 points across 31 games), both below Division I averages. The Blue Raiders’ assist-to-turnover ratio was 0. 7 (305 assists, 417 turnovers) last season, the lowest among Division I teams; league average stood at 1. 2. Their assists per game were 9. 8 (305 assists over 31 games), also below the Division I mean of 13. 4.

What to watch and short-term implications

Key matchups to monitor include ball security and perimeter defense. The betting lines and predictive models currently favor Middle Tennessee; if the Blue Raiders can sustain offensive efficiency near last season’s levels, they should validate market expectations. If New Mexico State can exploit its assist-to-turnover advantage and keep opponent three-point attempts inefficient, the Aggies can pressure the spread and reduce the likelihood of an outright loss.

• Game: Middle Tennessee vs New Mexico State at Murphy Center, Feb. 28; tip 2: 00 pm ET.
• Market: Middle Tennessee favored by 6. 5 points; total 146. 5.
• Models: Middle Tennessee win probability 68. 7%; cover probability 55. 6%.

Final injury statuses and lineup confirmations were not listed in the pregame data and remain not publicly confirmed ahead of tipoff. The numbers above provide the observable indicators that will shape immediate expectations for the game.