Exclusive: CIA Warned of Hardline IRGC Successor if Khamenei Targeted

Recent intelligence assessments from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) indicate significant concerns regarding Iran’s leadership structure amid potential military strikes. These assessments suggest that the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could lead to the rise of hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This crucial information has come to light ahead of recent U.S. and Israeli operations in Iran.

CIA Analysis: Potential IRGC Leadership Changes

As tensions escalated, the CIA prepared reports over the last two weeks analyzing possible outcomes following U.S. military intervention. Sources familiar with the intelligence noted that various scenarios were considered, alluding to the IRGC’s influence in the event of Khamenei’s removal.

• The IRGC is a pivotal military entity tasked with safeguarding Shi’ite clerical governance in Iran.
• While the reports raised the potential for regime change, no definitive conclusions were drawn.

U.S. Objectives and Recent Attacks

On February 28, 2026, satellite imagery revealed extensive damage to Khamenei’s compound after the U.S. and Israel conducted strikes. President Donald Trump has been vocal about the desire for regime change in Iran, framing Tehran as a “terrorist regime.” He encouraged the Iranian populace to rise against their government as military actions commenced.

• Trump’s administration has been deliberating strikes against Iran, especially following the December protests.
• U.S. diplomats previously sought to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran to avoid military conflict.

Prior to the Strikes: Congressional Briefings

In discussions with key congressional figures, Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that military action was imminent. Despite this, he acknowledged that Trump’s decision could shift, particularly if diplomatic negotiations had yielded positive results. However, recent talks in Geneva failed to produce an agreement, further fueling the likelihood of military operations.

The ongoing situation remains fluid as U.S. officials monitor developments within Iran. The prospect of an IRGC-led regime poses distinct implications for both regional stability and U.S. foreign policy objectives.