Bitcoin Price Forecasts Diverge After Grok AI’s $40K Call
Grok AI projects a bitcoin price floor of $40, 000, a forecast that sits well below most analyst bottoms and has renewed debate over how far the market could fall or rally before late 2026.
Grok’s $40, 000 projection is 33% to 45% below the analyst bottoms clustered between $60, 000 and $75, 000 and comes as Bitcoin recently swung from nearly $60, 000 in early February to around $67, 000.
The gap matters because Grok’s base case sits between $75, 000 and $150, 000, while its bull scenarios reach $200, 000 to $300, 000 by late 2026—showing the model’s wide range from a prolonged bear to an outsized rally.
Bitcoin Price: Grok's range vs. analyst bottoms
Grok’s $40, 000 floor would put Bitcoin roughly 68% below its October 2025 peak of $126, 000, a drawdown comparable to the 2018 and 2022 crashes. Those earlier selloffs followed exchange collapses, regulatory crackdowns, and market panic; the current cycle has not seen those triggers, per the provided context.
How Grok builds its forecasts
The model pulls real-time data from X, tracking sentiment shifts, viral trends, and crowd psychology, and runs thousands of scenario simulations that weigh ETF flows, post-halving supply dynamics, and Fed policy against each other. That design lets Grok react faster to momentum shifts but can overweight fear during selloffs.
Drivers for the bull case and the $40K tail risk
Grok says three drivers would underpin its bull case: monthly ETF inflows staying above $3 billion, at least two Fed rate cuts, and continued corporate treasury adoption following Strategy's playbook. A major catalyst like a G7 nation adding Bitcoin to reserves would push the timeline forward.
For the $40, 000 bear case, Grok leans on X sentiment data and technical charts circulating on the platform that project $40, 000 as a cycle bottom in 2026. The model treats $40, 000 as a tail risk rather than a base expectation, but it sees that level as possible if ETF outflows accelerate, the Fed stays hawkish through 2026, and a contagion event occurs.
Where other forecasters stand
Most analysts cluster their Bitcoin bottoms between $60, 000 and $75, 000. Carol Alexander expects Bitcoin to trade in a "high-volatility range" of $75, 000 to $150, 000 with a center of gravity around $110, 000. Standard Chartered has trimmed targets twice since December 2025 and now warns of a $50, 000 bottom before recovery to $100, 000 by year-end.
Other AI models land closer to consensus: ChatGPT projects a $40, 000 to $75, 000 bottom range in a prolonged crypto winter but weights its base case between $75, 000 and $110, 000. Claude projects $70, 000 to $120, 000 in a moderate scenario, with bear cases bottoming around $30, 000 to $50, 000 only under severe macro stress. Grok’s $40, 000 floor sits 33% to 45% below most of these estimates, making it the most bearish projection among major forecasters.
Market signal and notable mentions
Bitcoin fell to nearly $60, 000 in early February and later recovered to about $67, 000, a recent move that analysts largely view as evidence the worst may be over—though Grok sees more downside ahead. The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 also recently named his top 10 AI stocks, a separate development noted in the same context.
The article that contained Grok’s scenarios listed four key factors that could push BTC toward $40, 000 but the provided context is incomplete on that list; unclear in the provided context on the remaining entries. Grok’s timelines and bull scenarios point to late 2026 as the horizon for $200, 000–$300, 000 outcomes, and the model treats a $40, 000 cycle bottom as a tail risk within scenarios extending into 2026.
Markets will track monthly ETF flow data, Fed policy actions through 2026, and sentiment on X as the next concrete checkpoints tied to these forecasts.
