By Election: Votes Being Counted in Gorton and Denton After Three‑Way Contest
Ballots are being counted after voters in Gorton and Denton took part in a closely fought by election that pitched Labour, Reform UK and the Green Party against one another. The result, expected in the early hours of Friday at about 4am, could reverberate through national strategies with local and devolved polls just weeks away.
Count in Gorton and Denton By Election
Counting has begun in south‑east Manchester following polls that closed after what campaigners called one of the most unpredictable byelections in years. The by election was scheduled for Thursday 26 February, with the declaration pencilled in for about 4am on Friday.
Turnout and the electorate: 47. 62% matches 2024 benchmark
Turnout in the contest stood at 47. 62% of the electorate, a figure only marginally lower than the constituency’s 47. 8% at the 2024 general election. Turnout often falls at mid‑term contests, but observers noted that for a by‑poll to effectively match the previous general election level is unusual.
Candidates: Angeliki Stogia, Matt Goodwin and Hannah Spencer
Labour selected councillor Angeliki Stogia after Andy Burnham was prevented from standing. Reform UK fielded academic‑turned‑presenter Matt Goodwin, who has attracted criticism for past comments about women, Muslims and British citizenship. The Green Party candidate is Hannah Spencer, a Trafford councillor who works as a plumber by trade.
Trigger, controversy and conduct: Andrew Gwynne, observers and the council
The contest was triggered by the resignation in January of former Labour MP Andrew Gwynne on health grounds; Gwynne had been under a parliamentary investigation over offensive messages sent in a WhatsApp group of a local Labour figure. Election observers reported "concerningly high" levels of what they termed "family voting" at some polling stations, a claim that the council has disputed.
Tactical voting, FPTP and broader implications
The three‑way dynamic has renewed debate over First Past The Post. The Electoral Reform Society warned that FPTP struggles in multi‑party contests, arguing the 2024 general election was the most disproportional ever, with Labour securing almost two‑thirds of MPs from just over one‑third of votes. Where three parties are competitive, it is possible for a candidate to win with the backing of fewer than a third of voters, leaving large numbers of ballots effectively unrepresented. The society pointed to the Single Transferable Vote used in Scottish local elections as an example of a preferential system that transfers votes until a majority is reached.
Campaign stakes: Polanski, Starmer and the narrative battle
Green leader Zack Polanski said his party was "neck and neck" with Reform UK and argued Labour would need to "search their conscience" if Reform prevailed. Keir Starmer’s campaign framed the contest as a fight to prevent a Reform win, warning that a Green vote risked aiding Nigel Farage’s party; Starmer described the Greens’ drugs policy as "disgusting, " saying it would turn parks and playgrounds into "crack dens. " Polanski criticised Starmer’s intervention as "spoiler behaviour" and condemned an attack advert depicting a green syringe with the words: "Heroin, crack cocaine, spice. Green party says YES. "
Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton judged the race too close to call and warned that a Labour defeat could be "terminal" for the party’s strategy of appealing to right‑leaning voters, a course he said has alienated core progressives. He highlighted the decision to bar Andy Burnham from standing as a factor that could risk Labour finishing third behind Reform and the Greens. The government is currently described as eight points behind Reform in the polls, and Labour faces local and devolved elections in 10 weeks where heavy losses are expected.
What makes this notable is the convergence of local grievance, national strategy and electoral mechanics: the resignation of Andrew Gwynne on health grounds directly produced this contest, which in turn has intensified tactical messaging from all three camps. Coverage was edited by Owen Amos and Angus Thompson, with Jack Fenwick at the count in Manchester.
