Senators vs. Detroit Red Wings: Predictions, Odds and Picks for Feb. 26 Showdown

The Ottawa Senators host the detroit red wings tonight at Canadian Tire Centre with a 7 p. m. ET puck drop. Handicappers and betting markets have honed in on goaltending and shot volume after both clubs return from a multi-week layoff, and several clear betting angles are emerging ahead of the matchup.

Detroit Red Wings matchup snapshot

The detroit red wings arrive with offensive and road trends that shape the market. The visiting club averages 28. 4 shots per game and ranks 23rd in goals per road game, averaging 2. 86. That combination suggests moderate attack volume but limited conversion away from home, a profile that influences spread and total wagers for this contest.

Recent market placements include an against-the-spread pick of Red Wings (+1. 5), a total leaning to the Under (6. 5), and a straight-score projection favoring the home team by a one-goal margin: Senators 4, Red Wings 3. Those lines reflect expectations for a relatively tight, low-to-moderate scoring game where Detroit’s shot totals matter more than finishing rates.

Goaltending, special prop bets, and in-game expectations

Goaltending markets are a focal point for this matchup. A top betting angle is a saves prop for Ottawa’s netminder, with the best bet listed as Over 22. 5 saves at standard moneyline pricing. The underlying view is that Ottawa’s goaltender will face a steady stream of attempts, driven in part by the Red Wings’ shot rate.

On the home-ice side, Ottawa’s defensive profile at Canadian Tire Centre is noted for allowing the fewest expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. That home defensive strength supports the Under (6. 5) lean, especially with both teams coming off a multi-week layoff that could produce looser defensive alignments early in the game but not necessarily higher scoring efficiency.

Players to watch and situational notes

• Key offensive catalysts listed for the matchup are Drake Batherson for the home side and Alex DeBrincat for the visitors; both are identified as the leading offensive figures each team will lean on.
• Ottawa defenseman Thomas Chabot is coming off a stretch with consistent shot activity: two or more shots in 11 of his past 15 games, totaling 31 shots on 63 attempts while averaging 21: 09 of ice time per game. That suggests Chabot will be an active contributor from the back end.

Expect the first phase of play to show rust from the layoff—more loose defensive moments and an elevated volume of shots early—while finish and special-teams execution may lag. That combination is why some handicappers favor the goaltender saves prop and a cautious view on total scoring.

Picks, odds context and what to watch in-play

Current handicaps and projections reflect a tight game environment: a spread pick giving Detroit life with +1. 5, an Under 6. 5 total, and a projected 4-3 edge for the Senators. The goaltender saves prop Over 22. 5 is another primary play tied to expected shot volume. Bettors should note that odds are subject to change and market dynamics could shift up to puck drop.

In-play signals that would meaningfully alter the matchup outlook include an early power-play sequence for either team, clear goaltender struggles, or an unexpected run of high-danger chances favoring one side. Those scenarios would push the total and moneyline markets in short order. Otherwise, this game profiles as a closely contested affair decided by special teams and goaltending execution.

Final note: this preview is based on the latest available betting placements and matchup metrics. Details and odds may evolve, so monitor line movement before placing wagers.