Nvidia’s Earnings Are the Market’s Moment — Margins, Momentum and a $4.8 Trillion Swing

Why this matters now: The market’s posture is fragile and nvidia’s report lands at the center. With huge revenue and profit estimates, a dominant market cap that gives the stock outsized influence on the S&P 500, and fresh pressure on margins from rising input costs, investors are parsing whether strong headline numbers will actually sustain the recent rally or trigger volatility instead.

Nvidia’s market weight and what a beat or miss would shift

Nvidia sits as the world’s most valuable company with a roughly $4. 8 trillion market capitalization, and that size gives the share price enormous sway over the S&P 500 Index. The index has fallen less than 1% from a late January peak while Nvidia’s stock has cooled recently, rising about 5% since the start of the fourth quarter and recording a more than 2% intraday gain on Wednesday. Ken Mahoney, president of Mahoney Asset Management, warned that even tremendous numbers can meet a fickle market reaction.

Expected results, margins and the chip roadmap

The firm’s fiscal fourth quarter, which ended on Jan. 31, is expected to show a revenue jump of 68% to $65. 9 billion and adjusted earnings rising 72% to $1. 53 a share. Gross margin is another focal point: adjusted gross margin is anticipated to be 75% in the fourth quarter — the highest in more than a year — and projected to remain around that level in the current fiscal year. Margins were pressured last year by high production costs for Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, and investors want reassurances that profitability can be sustained as memory chip and other input prices rise.

Melissa Otto, head of technology, media and telecommunications research at Visible Alpha, flagged margins as a potential risk factor and is looking for the gross-margin picture entering the current quarter and any guidance for the rest of the year. She is also seeking updates on the status of the Blackwell line and the upcoming Rubin chips. Jensen Huang said in October that Blackwell and Rubin were on track to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue over the next several quarters, a milestone it would reach faster than initially expected.

Market moves, sector fallout and where pain is concentrated

Investors have been fleeing sectors seen as potentially under threat from AI disruption. The resulting selloff is weighing on the S&P 500: shares of members like Intuit Inc., Gartner Inc. and Workday Inc. are down more than 40% since the start of the year. An index tracking the Magnificent Seven — which also includes Apple Inc., Amazon. com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. — has dropped 4. 7% in 2026. The broader picture is a market that has been powered higher for years by Nvidia and related names, but recent months show cooling momentum and concentrated weakness across certain software and service names.

Other headlines in the tape that investors are digesting

• LA’s bankrupt ‘Graffiti Towers’ finds a buyer for $470 million.
• An insurance expert appraises the safety record of self-driving cars.
• Oslo rebuilds its government quarter with a new focus on openness.

Open questions: China exposure and the truncated policy note

China remains top of mind: the company previously said that the fourth quarter won’t include any data-center revenue from the country. Investors will be looking for any update about the company’s ability to sell into China after recent policy moves; the final detail in the available coverage is unclear in the provided context. The real question now is whether management can provide clarity on China access and durable margin guidance that calms nervous buyers.

Here’s the part that matters for traders: a beat in revenue or margin could re-energize the market, but any hint that gross margins will compress because of input costs would likely trigger outsized downside given Nvidia’s footprint.

What’s easy to miss is how concentrated the market’s sensitivity has become; a single giant stock’s upside or downside now moves broad indexes in a way that rewards precision from management when they deliver their quarterly view. The bigger signal here is that investors are watching not just the headline numbers but the sustainability of margins, roadmap progress on Blackwell and Rubin, and the China sales picture.

Quick timeline (verifiable points)

• Fiscal fourth quarter ended on Jan. 31.
• Shares have risen about 5% since the start of the fourth quarter, with a >2% intraday gain on Wednesday.
• The Magnificent Seven index has dropped 4. 7% in 2026; several S&P members are down more than 40% since the start of the year.

Short-term signals that will confirm direction include the actual reported gross margin, any guidance on input-cost trends, updates on Blackwell and Rubin timelines, and explicit language about China sales capability. Recent updates indicate details may still evolve.