Nebius Stock Defies Logic as Meta Deal and Growth Targets Drive Optimism
nebius Group N. V. (NBIS) posted fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Feb 12, 2026, including a diluted EPS of -$. 068, even as investors have pushed the stock higher on large customer contracts and aggressive capacity plans that promise a sharp revenue ramp.
Nebius stock reaction vs. weak earnings
The headline earnings number was concrete: diluted EPS of -$. 068 for the period. Yet the company's market moves have been driven by a $3 billion five-year contract awarded by Meta in November 2025 and a separate five-year arrangement with Microsoft worth over $19 billion, items that collectively contribute to a backlog of more than $20 billion.
That backlog is already shaping forecasts: one set of analyst estimates projects Nebius' top line to rise to almost $3. 4 billion in 2026 from $530 million in 2025. Investors have rewarded the story—Nebius posted a 30-day share price return of 6. 47% and a one-year total shareholder return of 177. 77% from a last close of $100. 61, while one valuation placed fair value at $45. 62 and noted a market capitalization near $6 billion.
Meta contract and Nvidia access underpin revenue backlog
Meta's planned hardware purchases add a concrete tailwind: it said it will buy "millions of Nvidia Blackwell and Rubin GPUs" and deploy Nvidia GB300-based systems, with cloud partners tapped to host those deployments. Nebius participates in that cloud partner network and offers hourly rentals for Nvidia systems including H200, H100, and Blackwell models, plus token-based software access for AI models.
Separately, Nebius has raised $700 million from Nvidia and secured a partnership that provides discounted access to top-tier GPUs—discounts cited in one analysis at roughly $20, 000 per unit—which the company has used to plan rapid GPU scaling. Those hardware and customer commitments are a central part of why analysts expect a step-change in revenue this year.
Growth targets, capacity plans and the valuation gap
Management's capacity targets are specific: expand data center sites to 16 this year from seven in 2025 and increase active data center power to between 800 megawatts and 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026, up from 170 megawatts at the end of last year. Another projection cited GPU capacity growing from 20, 000 to 240, 000 by 2027 in pursuit of multi‑billion revenue ambitions.
Those targets have created a sharp valuation debate. One analysis framed a fair value of $45. 62 against a last close of $100. 61, highlighting the gap between current market pricing and a more conservative estimate, while the company’s contract wins, capital partnerships and backlog argue for rapid top-line expansion that would close the gap if realized.
For investors tracking concrete next steps, Nebius still plans to execute on its buildout: increase data center sites to 16 this year and reach 800 MW to 1 GW of active power capacity by the end of 2026. Those milestones are the immediate markers that will show whether the revenue forecasts tied to the Meta and Microsoft contracts translate into the sizable growth already priced into the stock.
