Ibm Stock Plunges as Taleb, Citrini Fuel AI Scare Trade; ibm stock Falls 13%
The artificial intelligence “scare trade” resurfaced and sent ibm stock sharply lower, closing down 13% in the biggest one-day drop since 2000. The selloff followed a sequence that began with a weekend report from Citrini Research, included a Monday blog post from Anthropic about its Claude Code tool and ended with a warning from Nassim Taleb.
Ibm Stock Plunge and Catalyst
Market losses opened after a bearish report published over the weekend by a little known firm called Citrini Research. The report was released on social media Sunday and outlined potential risks to various segments of the global economy, using hypothetical scenarios set in the future and specifically calling out food delivery services and credit card companies as ones facing trouble.
Citrini’s weekend report
Citrini Research, founded by James van Geelen, presented a scenario set in June 2028 in which AI disruption had caused mass unemployment for white collar workers, declining consumer spending, software-backed loan defaults and economic contraction. The report prefaced the piece by saying, “The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored. ” It also cautioned plainly, “What follows is a scenario, not a prediction. ”
Anthropic’s COBOL claim
Following the Citrini release, an AI startup said in a blog post Monday that its Claude Code tool can help with modernizing COBOL, a dated programming language that’s mainly run on IBM computers. That post was one element cited by market participants in the runup to the rout.
Taleb’s warning on volatility
And finally came a warning from Nassim Taleb, who urged investors to brace for escalating volatility and even bankruptcies in the software sector as the AI rally enters a fragile phase. To Taleb, markets are underpricing structural risks while overestimating the durability of current AI leaders.
Market reaction across sectors
IBM shares closed down 13%, marking the company’s worst plunge in 25 years and the biggest one-day drop since 2000. Delivery, payments and software companies were broadly pressured: DoorDash Inc., American Express Co., KKR & Co Inc. and Blackstone Inc. all slumped by at least 6%. Shares of other companies name-checked in the report, including Uber Technologies Inc., Mastercard Inc., Visa Inc., Capital One Financial Corp. and Apollo Global Management Inc. all fell by 4% or more.
Industry scenarios and responses
The Citrini report presented various outcomes in its thought exercise. Among them was a scenario where the dominance of delivery apps like DoorDash and Uber Eats are displaced by “vibe-coded” alternatives. In response, DoorDash co‑founder Andy Fang posted on X: “We definitely believe agentic commerce will be transformative to the industry. The ground is shifting underneath our feet, and the industry is going to need to adapt to it. ”
The report also described a potential path where AI agents seek to save users money by eliminating transaction fees charged by payment processing firms like Mastercard and Visa. The authors tempered the alarm by noting, “We are certain some of these scenarios won’t materialize. ” They added a reminder for investors: “As investors, we still have time to assess how much of our portfolios are built upon assumptions that won’t survive the decade. ”
Other unrelated headlines that appeared alongside coverage at the time included: Private Prisons Face Competition Under Trump’s New Detention Plan; An Insurance Expert Appraises the Safety Record of Self-Driving Cars; A Shaker Revival Points to Something Deeper Than a Trad Obsession; and White House Ballroom Design Approved by Trump Commission After One Hearing.
The chain of events — a weekend Citrini Research scenario released on social media Sunday, a Monday blog post about Claude Code and COBOL, and a sharp public warning from Nassim Taleb — coincided with the steep drop in ibm stock and broad losses across delivery, payments and software names.
Closing paragraph: The episode underscored how a speculative scenario and a technical claim about modernizing COBOL, combined with high-profile warnings about structural risks, can trigger abrupt market moves, with IBM suffering a 13% one-day decline and multiple firms posting double-digit stress across related sectors.
