Patrick Kypson an Underwhelming Long Shot as Odds and Simulations Favor Alex de Minaur in Acapulco

patrick kypson will face Alex de Minaur in the round of 32 at the 2026 ATP Mexico Open in Acapulco, and both a 10, 000-run simulation and Australian betting markets make de Minaur the heavy favorite ahead of the match.

Patrick Kypson draws a steep challenge in round of 32

Kypson advanced from qualifying after two strong matches and now meets the tournament’s second seed, Alex de Minaur, who is listed as World No. 6 and a two-time Acapulco champion. The matchup is set for the round of 32 at the ATP Mexico Open, and one prediction offered a straight-set forecast of "De Minaur in 2. "

Betting markets and a 10, 000-run simulation tilt toward de Minaur

A simulation that ran the Kypson–de Minaur match 10, 000 times gave de Minaur an 89% chance of victory. Australian betting markets show Kypson at $10. 00 and de Minaur at $1. 06 on TAB, while first-set prices sit at $5. 50 for Kypson and $1. 14 for de Minaur. The simulation’s model also noted a 1. 3% edge when comparing its probabilities to available odds, and recommended a first-set play of de Minaur at $1. 80.

Match timing and what comes next

The Kypson–de Minaur match is scheduled to begin at 12: 55 p. m. AEDT on Tuesday. With seven first-round matches listed for Day 1 of the tournament, this round-of-32 pairing is one of the early highlight matchups that will shape the Acapulco draw for the week.

For Patrick Kypson, the immediate task is straightforward: build on the two qualifying wins and try to extend play against a top seed with recent form and titles at this venue. For de Minaur, the focus will be on executing the service and return games that underpinned his run to the Rotterdam title and his status as a two-time champion here.

The next confirmed milestone is the match start time at 12: 55 p. m. AEDT on Tuesday, when fans will see whether the simulation and market odds hold or if Kypson can produce an upset in Acapulco.