Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija prediction and odds for UFC Houston
The heavyweight matchup between Serghei Spivac and ante delija closes the main card at UFC Fight Night 267 at Toyota Center in Houston, a Saturday headliner loaded with statistical contrasts and recent controversy that matters for betting and matchups. The bout brings sharply different recent runs, measurable physical contrasts and conflicting odds into one marquee heavyweight test.
Event details: UFC Fight Night 267 at Toyota Center, timing and broadcast
The fight is scheduled on the main card of UFC Fight Night 267 at Toyota Center in Houston on Saturday, February 21, 2026. Spivac and Delija are expected to walk to the cage at approximately 9: 10 p. m. ET, and the matchup will stream live on a subscription streaming service.
Serghei Spivac's record, measurements and recent form
Serghei Spivac enters with a 17-6 MMA record and an 8-6 mark in the organization. He is listed as 31 years old, fights at 260 lbs, stands 6'3" and uses an orthodox stance with a 78" reach; his nickname is "Polar Bear. " Spivac has endured back-to-back losses that have shaped a rough 2025 campaign: he was stopped in the first round last January by the recently-released Jailton Almeida and then lost a decision in June to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. His most recent win before that run was a first-round submission of Marcin Tybura in August 2024.
Statistically Spivac averages 3. 45 significant strikes per minute and lands 48% of those attempts. He absorbs 4. 25 significant strikes per minute and deflects roughly 50% of significant strikes aimed at him. In wrestling metrics he scores takedowns 4. 21 times per three rounds, completes takedowns on 62% of his attempts and stuffs 63% of opponents' takedown attempts. He attempts about 0. 5 submissions per three rounds.
Ante Delija's measurements, recent loss and controversial stoppage
Ante Delija arrives with a 26-7 MMA record and is 1-1 in the organization. He is listed as 35 years old, fights at 239 lbs, stands 6'3" with a 78" wingspan, uses an orthodox stance and carries the nickname "Walking Trouble. " Delija lost a November fight to Waldo Cortes-Acosta that featured a controversial stop and restart, resulting in a first-round loss; he had previously won his debut by finishing Marcin Tybura in the first round. Delija said he thought he had won the November fight but ended up losing.
On the metrics side, Delija averages 4. 81 significant strikes per minute and lands 45% of those attempts. He absorbs 2. 65 significant strikes per minute and stops 38% of the shots thrown his way. Delija completes takedowns at a 15% success rate and stuffs 15% of takedown attempts against him. His submission attempts register as 0. 4 per 15 minutes in the provided data.
Recent-fight punch and strike breakdowns for both men
Spivac's last outing against Waldo Cortes-Acosta ended in a unanimous decision loss in round 3. In that contest Cortes-Acosta landed 111 of 236 total strikes while Spivac landed 53 of 124 total strikes. On significant strikes Cortes-Acosta landed 110 of 235 (46%), and Spivac landed 48 of 119 (40%). Cortes-Acosta landed 76 of 196 significant strikes to the head; Spivac landed 39 of 109 to the head. A large share of those significant strikes were thrown at distance: 95% of Cortes-Acosta's significant strikes landed and 93% of Spivac's were thrown at distance.
Delija's most recent fight against Waldo Cortes-Acosta ended by a punch to the head in round 1. Delija landed 16 of 36 significant strikes (44%), including 13 of 33 aimed at the head; total strikes landed for Delija in that contest were 18 of 38. Cortes-Acosta landed 12 of 17 significant strikes in that exchange, nine of 11 to the head, and 18 of 24 total strikes. The distance-versus-in-fight placement split for Delija showed a very high share of significant strikes at distance, with Delija connecting on 93% of his significant strikes at distance in that bout while Cortes-Acosta connected on 33% of his at distance.
Odds, public lean and Dan Tom's prediction
Oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the Croatian fighter; one set of odds lists Delija at -142 and Spivac at +116, while another published opening line shows Delija at -135 and Spivac at +115. MMA analyst Dan Tom framed the matchup as one of the heavier fight-night matchups with grappling implications, calling Spivac one of three heavyweights on the roster who can competently grapple and therefore a live underdog. Tom also noted that if the fight took place in the smaller octagon at the UFC Apex he would favor Spivac outright, but he cited Spivac's glass-cannon-like sensibilities and historical struggles against powerful athletes as reasons to be cautious.
Tom leaned toward Delija to redeem himself after what he characterized as a botched last fight by the Nevada State Athletic Commission and onsite officials, and his official pick was Ante Delija by knockout in Round 1.
Card note: other bouts called out for attention
The preview materials also flagged another matchup to watch on the same card: Zach Reese versus Michel Pereira. That bout was listed as an additional contest that shouldn't be missed on this UFC Houston card.
