Shell Projects Notable Boost in Q1 Oil Trading Profits
Shell said it expects adjusted earnings from marketing and oil trading to be notably stronger in the first quarter. The company published a trading update ahead of its first-quarter results, due May 7.
Preview of first-quarter results
Shell indicated marketing adjusted earnings will outpace last year. The trading and optimization result should be significantly higher than the fourth quarter of 2025.
Management cited extreme market volatility at quarter end as a key driver. That turbulence boosted opportunities in oil trading and products marketing.
Production and liquefaction outlook
Shell forecast natural gas production at 880,000–920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This compares with 948,000 boe/d in the fourth quarter.
The company attributed the decline to the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatari volumes. LNG liquefaction volumes are projected at 7.6–8.0 million tonnes.
That forecast compares with 7.8 million tonnes in the prior quarter. Shell said the range reflects an LNG Canada ramp-up. The increase is offset by weather constraints in Australia and outages in Qatar.
Qatar and regional disruptions
Shell updated markets after Iranian attacks on the Ras Laffan complex. The assaults affected regional infrastructure and supply flows.
The firm confirmed no damage to train one at the Pearl GTL facility. An initial assessment estimated about one year for full repair of train two.
QatarEnergy shut LNG production across facilities as early as March 2. The state company later declared force majeure on exports.
Shell’s Qatar exposure
Shell holds a 30% stake in QatarEnergy LNG N(4). That equity equals roughly 2.4 million tonnes per annum of production.
Shell reported that the N(4) onshore facility was not affected by the March 18, 2026 attacks. The company also maintains supply contracts with other QatarEnergy LNG plants.
As the world’s top LNG trader by volumes, Shell said its broader trading portfolio will influence reported results.
Market context and expectations
Analysts noted that late-quarter chaos opened trading and optimization opportunities. Many firms saw widened margins amid price swings.
Industry observers point to both physical disruptions and financial flows. Together, these factors underpin Shell’s upbeat guidance.
Shell Projects Notable Boost in Q1 Oil Trading Profits has emerged as a theme among commentators. The firm’s update signals stronger marketing and trading outcomes for the period.
By Michael Kern for Filmogaz.com
