March Madness 2026 Bracket Watch: Top 16 Preview, Louisville Mock 5-Seed and the Last No. 1 Seed Battle
The NCAA selection committee is meeting in Indianapolis as it begins preparations for Selection Sunday, and that process is already shaping March Madness 2026 seeding narratives. On Saturday the committee will reveal a preview of the current top 16 teams — a snapshot experts view as a key indicator of how teams stand as the season hits the home stretch.
March Madness 2026: What the Top 16 preview will reveal
The committee’s planned Saturday preview of the top 16 is framed as a valuable data point for understanding how the group views certain teams and what the committee may prioritize this year. Early projections suggest the top three teams are fairly set heading into the reveal, though movement inside that group remains possible if the committee weighs specific résumé elements differently.
Arizona’s four elite road wins are highlighted as a factor that could keep the Wildcats above Duke at No. 2 in the committee’s view. More broadly, attention will focus on the last available No. 1 seed slot. UConn had been positioned there in prior bracket watches before a home loss to Creighton, a setback compounded by a relatively easy conference schedule among the No. 1 contenders.
Houston and Iowa State are identified as the primary competitors for that final top seed. Houston leads on certain metrics, while Iowa State holds a recent head-to-head win over Houston — a dynamic that could influence the committee’s final ordering when Selection Sunday arrives.
Louisville in mock process: a 5-seed, a First-Round Matchup and metrics debate
A group of influential college basketball media members conducted a full mock selection process in Indianapolis on Thursday and placed Louisville as a No. 5 seed and the mock committee’s No. 20 overall team. The mock bracket sets Louisville to open against a 12-seed that has been described as the nation’s highest-scoring team; a potential second-round matchup with a No. 4 seed would likely pit the Cardinals against an offensive-minded opponent.
Metrics paint a mixed picture for Louisville. In the mock group’s ranking, Louisville sits at No. 20 overall, while a separate wins-above-bubble measure lists the Cardinals at No. 22. Predictive metrics are kinder: the Cardinals are inside the top 15 in several predictive systems. If wins-above-bubble primarily determines which teams make the field while predictive metrics carry more weight for seeding, that dynamic could benefit Louisville when the bracket is finalized.
For Louisville and bubble-watchers, the mock outcome reshapes March Madness 2026 seeding conversations and underscores the distinction between measures used to project field inclusion versus seed placement.
Injuries on the projected No. 4 line and the committee’s considerations
Two teams projected near the No. 4 seed line are dealing with significant injuries that the committee chair, Keith Gill, may address during Saturday’s preview. One projected team has been without its star big man since early January due to a knee injury, leaving that player’s tournament status unknown. Another team will be without a potential All-American after an ACL tear suffered earlier this week against Arizona State. How these injuries affect seeding will depend on team performance in the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday.
Also considered for placement just outside the immediate top grouping are teams with records that place them in contention: Arkansas (19–7), St. John’s (21–5), Louisville (19–7) and Tennessee (19–7). The top 16 preview will offer insight into how the committee balances résumé elements, metrics and injury notes as the field and seed lines take shape.
Saturday’s top-16 preview and the mock bracket produced on Thursday are the latest steps in the lead-up to Selection Sunday. Recent updates indicate these developments could shift perceptions and seed placement; details may evolve as teams play out the remainder of the season and the committee finalizes its evaluations.
