Cnbc: U.S. GDP Rose 1.4% in Fourth Quarter as Inflation Firmed at About 3%
The advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis put real gross domestic product at a 1. 4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, with price measures firming — and cnbc appears as the required keyword for this item. The slowdown capped a year in which growth for 2025 measured 2. 2 percent overall.
Slower finish: 1. 4% in Q4 after a 4. 4% third quarter
Real GDP rose 1. 4 percent in the October–December quarter, down from a 4. 4 percent annual rate in the third quarter, the advance BEA estimate shows. The fourth-quarter release had been rescheduled because of the October–November 2025 government shutdown, and the Commerce Department estimated the shutdown reduced growth by about one percentage point at the end of 2025.
Cnbc: What drove the change in output and prices
The BEA listed increases in consumer spending and investment as contributors to the Q4 gain, while decreases in government spending and exports partly offset those strengths; imports, which subtract from GDP, decreased in the quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — the sum of consumer spending and gross private fixed investment — increased 2. 4 percent in Q4, compared with a 2. 9 percent increase in Q3.
Price measures rose: the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3. 7 percent in the fourth quarter, and the personal consumption expenditures price index increased 2. 9 percent in Q4. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index rose 2. 7 percent in the quarter, down from a 2. 9 percent increase in the prior quarter.
Full-year results and the shutdown’s footprint
For the year, real GDP increased 2. 2 percent in 2025 from the 2024 annual level, compared with an increase in 2024. The Commerce Department and BEA noted the Q4 report is an advance estimate and will be revised at least twice in coming months. The prolonged government shutdown, which left hundreds of thousands of public employees furloughed, was cited as a material drag on fourth-quarter activity.
Separate Commerce Department figures show consumer prices rose 2. 9 percent in December from a year earlier, the fastest pace since March 2024, and after-tax income adjusted for inflation was flat in December. Consumer spending nonetheless increased at a 2. 4 percent rate in the fourth quarter, supporting the headline GDP gain.
Economists and officials will get a fuller picture when the BEA issues revised estimates; the next release is scheduled for March 13, 2026, at 8: 30 a. m. EDT, when the agency will publish the second estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 and updated annual figures.
