Pebble Beach Pro Am Final Round Reshaped by Forecast; Bhatia Holds Two‑Shot Lead

Organizers moved Sunday’s play earlier and grouped competitors into threesomes off split tees as a strengthening Pacific storm threatens to wash over the Monterey Peninsula. Akshay Bhatia, who led after three rounds, will start the day holding a two‑shot advantage over Collin Morikawa, while shifting winds and a rising chance of rain promise a volatile finish.

Tee times shifted — early groups gain a clear advantage

Tee times now run from 10: 22 a. m. ET to 12: 45 p. m. ET, with threesomes going off both the first and 10th tees to beat the worst of the forecasted weather. Tournament officials accelerated the schedule to limit the number of players exposed to the afternoon’s stronger winds and heavier rain.

Models show the mildest conditions for early starters: sustained winds between 6 and 12 mph and only a modest chance of showers. By noon ET the odds of precipitation climb and winds are expected to strengthen, with sustained speeds projected between 10 and 20 mph and gusts approaching 30 mph. Later in the afternoon the numbers lean higher still, creating a stark wave advantage for golfers who tee off earliest.

Leaderboard picture and who should be worried

Akshay Bhatia will carry a two‑shot lead into the final round after an up‑and‑down third day that began with six birdies in his first seven holes and ended with turbulence as the wind picked up. Bhatia turned in 2‑under through nine but played his closing nine in 2‑over for a 4‑under round, setting up a nervy Sunday for the 24‑year‑old.

Collin Morikawa surged into contention with a flawless 10‑under 62, hitting all 18 greens in regulation in Round 3 — only the third time in his PGA TOUR career he’s done that. Morikawa sits two back and brings a ball‑striking game that can be a major asset if early conditions remain calm.

Behind them, a handful of players stand ready to capitalize if the leaderboard slips under the afternoon wind. Names to watch include Jake Knapp, Sepp Straka and Jacob Bridgeman, each of whom climbed into contention during Saturday’s action. Long hitters and steady wind performers could make the biggest moves if gusts spike late.

Weather metrics, scoring implications and the likely movers

Weather Applied Metrics work highlights how quickly Pebble Beach can change from a scoring venue to a punishment course when the Pacific wind kicks in. The course had played slightly under par through much of the week, but the forecasted wind and rain could shift scoring averages toward even par or worse for the late wave.

Market indicators showed round‑scoring expectations between 68. 5 and 69. 5 this week. If Sunday afternoon’s groups face the projected gusts, those markets could push toward higher numbers, creating value for bets on overs and opening placement opportunities for early tee times.

Two statistical buckets stand out for Sunday: performance in heavy wind and play in cooler temperatures. Over the last 36 rounds in windy conditions, top performers include Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners and Collin Morikawa — players with proven track records when the elements turn on. Temperature‑sensitive strokes gained data also favors names familiar with mid‑50s conditions.

Shane Lowry, currently inside striking range, profiles well for a late surge. He finished runner‑up at this course last season and ranks highly in putting gains here; if the afternoon becomes a test of patience and low ball flight, Lowry could move into the top 10 or better.

Sunday at Pebble Beach will likely be a study in contrasts: calm for those who start early, punishing for those who remain on the course into the afternoon. With a two‑shot gap at the top and weather that can reshuffle scorecards quickly, patience and wind management will be rewarded.