Draws and Fades: Final Round at Pebble Beach Hinges on Wind, Leaders Brace for Shift
Akshay Bhatia will start the final round of the AT& T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a two-shot advantage after a weather-affected third round left late groups facing far stiffer conditions. Collin Morikawa’s 10-under 62 vaulted him into contention, but forecasts for increasing wind and rain have pushed organizers to move tee times earlier, setting up a classic wave advantage battle on Sunday.
Leaders survived shifting coast winds; Morikawa rockets into contention
Bhatia’s third-round salvo began in near-perfect scoring conditions — six birdies across his first seven holes pushed him to 2-under through nine — but the seaside breeze strengthened on the back nine and he played it in 2-over to card a 4-under round. He’ll carry a two-shot lead into Sunday, when any small mistake could be amplified by the elements.
Morikawa produced one of the round’s standout performances, firing a 10-under 62 and hitting all 18 greens in regulation — the third time in his TOUR career he’s done so in a single round. The surge leaves him within striking distance of his first victory since the 2023 ZOZO Championship. Other players lurking include Jake Knapp, Sepp Straka and Jacob Bridgeman, all within range if the leaderboard compresses under tougher conditions.
Forecast, tee-time shuffle set stage for wave advantage
Organizers moved tee times earlier to try to beat the worst of the forecast. Groups will go off in threesomes from split tees between 10: 22 a. m. ET and 12: 45 p. m. ET. Early-morning players are expected to face lighter winds — roughly 6–12 mph — with only a modest chance of showers. By midday, probability of precipitation rises and sustained winds are expected to climb into the 10–20 mph range, with gusts approaching 30–35 mph in the afternoon.
That escalation matters: course metrics show Pebble Beach usually plays slightly under par but can flip toward even par or over when the ocean wind comes up. Round scoring markets this week hovered between roughly 68. 5 and 69. 5; if afternoon conditions deteriorate as forecast, there’s likely value for higher scores among late starters. In short, early waves could benefit from calmer air while afternoon waves may face a course playing well tougher.
Statistical profiles highlight players built for wind and cool temperatures. Over recent heavy-wind rounds, the top performers include Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Shane Lowry, Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa and Wyndham Clark. Temperature-adjusted strokes-gained lists for the mid-40s to mid-50s also favor Scheffler and McIlroy, with Nick Taylor, Lowry, Daniel Berger and Ludvig Åberg featuring prominently. Those track records suggest certain names will be best placed to navigate a gusty close.
What to watch on Sunday
Key storylines: can Bhatia protect his lead when gusts spike and the rain moves in? Will Morikawa’s red-hot ball striking hold up in stronger wind? And can wind-savvy players like Shane Lowry leverage a tougher afternoon to move up from the chasing pack? Several players further down the board — including Hideki Matsuyama, Min Woo Lee, Maverick McNealy and Ben Griffin — could also take advantage if the late wave falters.
Television coverage begins at 1: 00 p. m. ET on national broadcasts, with a second network taking over at 3: 00 p. m. ET. With tee times moved into the late-morning window, the day’s early outcomes are likely to set the narrative: calm skies could produce low scores and separation; a brewing storm could create a scramble and dramatic leaderboard swings as the afternoon wears on.
The final round at Pebble Beach shapes up as a true test of shotmaking and strategy — and a reminder that at seaside links, the forecast can be as decisive as any stroke.
