UConn Tops First Top-16 Seed Projection for Women's NCAA Tournament
The selection committee released its first projection of the top 16 seeds ahead of the February 14 matchup between two SEC contenders, giving an early look at which teams could secure hosting rights and a one-line placement in March. Undefeated Connecticut claimed the No. 1 overall spot, with UCLA, South Carolina and Vanderbilt rounding out the projected top four.
Conference depth rewarded as Big Ten and SEC each place six teams
The projection underscored the season-long narrative that the Big Ten and the SEC are the deepest conferences in the sport this year. Each was credited with six teams among the projected top 16 seeds, signaling the committee’s view of those leagues as the most competitive and consistent heading toward March.
Vanderbilt’s surge into the one-line appears tied to a convincing 86-70 home victory over Texas that bolstered the Commodores’ résumé. That potential No. 1 seed would mark a landmark moment for the program; Vanderbilt has not occupied a top overall slot since 2002. Other familiar powers also surfaced near the top of the list, with UCLA and South Carolina staking strong claims to high seeds as conference play intensifies.
Teams on the rise and looming tests
Several programs were highlighted for either historic positioning or momentum that could shape the bracket picture. Ole Miss, sitting in a top-four projection, would notch its highest seed in more than three decades if it holds its spot. The Rebels come in at 20-5 with a run of six wins in eight games, but their stretch of tough opponents is immediate and daunting: four ranked foes in a span of roughly eight days, including Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU and South Carolina. How Ole Miss navigates that gauntlet could determine whether that historic seeding sticks.
Michigan State earned attention in the projection as well, mapped to host opening weekend games for the first time since 2016. For programs outside the projected top 16, there remains room to climb. Teams such as Baylor, West Virginia and North Carolina were identified as squads with opportunity to influence the seeding picture through upcoming conference matchups and late-season performance.
What’s next: another projection and final hosting decisions
The committee plans to issue a second projection of the top 16 seeds on Saturday, Feb. 28 (ET), offering teams and fans a refreshed look before Selection Sunday approaches. The definitive announcements for top-16 seeds and the corresponding hosting rights will be made the day before Selection Sunday, which falls on March 14 (ET), with the full bracket to follow.
With selection and hosting implications on the line, the coming weeks figure to be pivotal. High-profile matchups and intense conference stretches will test whether projected seeds hold up or if late-season surges rearrange the top tier. For many programs, especially those on the bubble of hosting consideration, every game now doubles as an audition for the one-line and a potential home-court advantage in the early rounds.
The initial projection gives a snapshot, but the path to March is still being carved. Teams that can sustain momentum and win against quality opponents over the next several weeks will put themselves in the strongest position to secure top-16 placement and the valuable hosting rights that accompany it.
