Minnesota Poll: Democrats Hold Edge in 2026 Matchups as Voters Cite ‘Threats to Democracy’
A new statewide poll of Minnesota likely voters released this week shows Democrats ahead in hypothetical 2026 contests for governor, U. S. Senate and the state House, while a plurality of respondents name threats to democracy as the top issue facing the state. The survey was conducted February 6–8, 2026 (ET) with a sample of 1, 000 likely voters and a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points.
Governor’s race: Klobuchar builds double-digit leads
The survey tested hypothetical matchups to replace outgoing Gov. Tim Walz and found a robust Democratic advantage. In pairings with a high-profile Democratic contender, the Democratic nominee led the tested Republican alternatives by wide margins — roughly 51% to 38% against one GOP candidate and 53% to 31% against another. Independents tilted heavily toward the Democratic candidate in both scenarios, widening the party’s advantage in the statewide tests.
Senate matchups tight but favor Democrats
The Senate picture showed narrower but persistent Democratic leads. In matchups with a Republican challenger identified as Michele Tafoya, the Democratic lieutenant governor led 47% to 41%, with about 12% undecided or supporting another option. A separate head-to-head test against another Democratic congresswoman produced a similar result, with the Democrat at 47% and Tafoya at 40% while 13% remained undecided or chose someone else. The Republican name also appears in some coverage spelled as michelle tafoya, and she performed competitively in the survey’s pairings.
State House control: Democrats ahead in generic ballot
A generic ballot test for the Minnesota House of Representatives gave the Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidate 49% and the Republican 42%. All House seats are up in 2026, and the current chamber is evenly split, meaning even single-digit shifts could determine which party controls the lower chamber next session.
Voters prioritize threats to democracy over the economy
Voters were asked to name the top issue facing Minnesota. The largest share, 28%, identified threats to democracy as their chief concern. Immigration ranked next at 17%, followed by the economy at 16%. Write-in responses included specific references to immigration enforcement and allegations of fraud. Party breakdowns show nearly half of Democrats rated threats to democracy as their top issue, and a substantial share of independents did as well; Republicans were likelier to prioritize immigration.
Immigration, ICE and policing shape opinions
The survey captured sharp views on immigration enforcement and recent use-of-force incidents. Sixty percent of respondents said Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s presence in Minnesota communities is more harmful than beneficial, while 36% said it is more beneficial. When asked whether they prefer the Trump or Biden administration’s immigration policies, 42% chose the former, 35% the latter, and 23% favored neither. On the question of eliminating ICE, respondents were split: 46% opposed elimination and 42% favored it, with 12% unsure.
On separate questions about fatal encounters involving federal officers in Minneapolis earlier this year, majorities judged the officers’ actions not justified: 57% for one shooting and 61% for another. A majority, 59%, disapproved of the prior administration’s handling of one of those incidents.
Political environment and implications
National figures also weighed on Minnesota voters. The incumbent president’s job approval in the state tilted negative, with 56% expressing disapproval and 39% approval. The departing governor’s approval numbers were narrower, with 47% disapproving and 41% approving. Taken together, the poll suggests Democrats enter the 2026 cycle with advantages on multiple fronts in Minnesota, but several close tests and high-salience issues leave room for competitive races through the campaign season.
Methodology
The statewide poll of 1, 000 likely Minnesota voters was carried out February 6–8, 2026 (ET). The sample’s credibility interval is +/- 3 percentage points. Data were weighted by demographic factors to reflect the likely voter population.
