Iona Basketball: Gaels carry edge into Buffalo showdown with Canisius on Friday

Iona heads to Buffalo looking to steady its late-season push, meeting Canisius at Koessler Athletic Center on Friday, Feb. 13, 2026. Tip is set for 7: 00 p. m. ET, with the Gaels positioned as a narrow favorite in what projects as a possession-by-possession game.

Tip time, venue and the latest numbers

The matchup is slated for 7: 00 p. m. ET at Koessler Athletic Center. The current spread sits at Iona -5. 5 with a total of 136. 5, reflecting expectations for a lower-scoring contest. Predictive models give the Gaels a slight edge, with a 57. 7% chance to win on the road.

Gaels seek a bounce-back after Mount St. Mary’s setback

Iona (14-11) enters off an 83-76 defeat to Mount St. Mary’s, a game that slipped away despite stretches of sharp shot-making. The Gaels shot 42. 4% from the floor and 9-of-33 from deep, while making 17-of-24 at the stripe (70. 8%). They created 10 turnovers but were hurt by allowing 50. 0% shooting and 11 made threes.

Forward Lamin Sabally was a bright spot, turning in 20 points on 8-for-10 shooting with 11 rebounds and three assists in 29 minutes. For the season, Iona averages 73. 6 points on 43. 8% shooting, including 35. 5% from three, and 69. 6% at the line. The Gaels generate 34. 5 rebounds per game and have tallied 352 assists, while keeping turnovers to 11. 6 per outing. Defensively, they allow 73. 6 points and 43. 4% shooting, forcing 11. 8 turnovers per game and holding opponents to 30. 3% from the arc. One consistent vulnerability has been the glass, with foes grabbing 38. 5 rebounds per game.

Canisius looking to reset at home

Canisius (8-17) returns home after a 75-60 loss to Quinnipiac, a result that underscored their ongoing offensive challenges. Over the broader sample since the start of last season, the Golden Griffins have averaged 66. 4 points per game, the lowest mark among conference peers during that span. Ball movement has also lagged this season at 12. 0 assists per game, the fewest in the league.

Efficiency inside the arc has been a major sticking point: Canisius is converting just 45% on two-point attempts this season, among the bottom handful in Division I. A home lift at the rim and at the free-throw line would go a long way; otherwise, they’ll need to trade in volume threes and extra possessions to keep pace.

Matchup numbers that matter

The perimeter battle tilts toward Iona. The Gaels average 9. 5 made threes per game this season, second-best in the conference, which could stretch a Canisius defense that must protect the arc without surrendering driving lanes. On the other end, Iona’s opponents are hitting just 30. 3% from deep, a sturdy number that raises the degree of difficulty for a Griffins team that has struggled to finish inside.

Possession quality and rebounding figure to be swing areas. Iona’s defense forces 11. 8 turnovers per game; if the Gaels translate that pressure into run-outs and rhythm threes, the math problem gets harder for the hosts. Conversely, Canisius can neutralize that edge by owning the boards, particularly against a Gaels side that has allowed opponents to pile up rebounds. If the Griffins can manufacture second-chance points and keep Iona off the line, the margin narrows.

What each side needs on Friday

For Iona: renewed discipline at the three-point line on defense and a balanced shot diet on offense. The Gaels’ spacing and volume from deep are weapons, but their best stretches come when inside-out touches set up catch-and-shoot looks. Another assertive all-around performance from Sabally would stabilize the road environment.

For Canisius: shot selection and tempo. Cleaner possessions—more paint touches, fewer rushed twos—could buoy an offense that has labored to create easy points. If the Griffins can keep turnovers in check and drag Iona into a half-court game, their chances improve, especially with the crowd behind them.

Outlook and a tight forecast

The spread and total align with a grind: a mid-60s to low-70s affair where each empty trip is magnified. The Gaels’ edge from the perimeter and a modest advantage in late-game creation give them the slightest nod, but Canisius has a viable path if it controls the boards and trims the turnover count.

Projection: Iona 71, Canisius 66. Expect a competitive fourth quarter, with free throws and end-of-clock shot-making deciding it.