Transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral Continues, Delaying El Niño Arrival
The ongoing climate patterns indicate a significant transition period in the Pacific Ocean. The transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is anticipated to occur between February and April 2026. This shift comes with a probability of 60%. Furthermore, there is a 56% likelihood that these ENSO-neutral conditions will continue throughout the Northern Hemisphere summer, from June to August 2026.
Current Oceanic Conditions
As of January 2026, La Niña remains in effect, with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below normal throughout the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest Niño-3.4 index stands at -0.9°C, while the Niño-4 and Niño-1+2 indices report -0.4°C and 0.0°C, respectively.
Subsurface Temperature Trends
The equatorial subsurface temperature index has shown a significant increase. This indicates a strengthening of subsurface temperatures above average across the Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric and Wind Anomalies
Atmospheric anomalies have weakened due to sub-seasonal variability, yet they still exhibit characteristics of La Niña. Low-level westerly wind anomalies are present over the western equatorial Pacific, accompanied by high-level westerly wind anomalies continuing over the central-eastern Pacific.
Convection Patterns
Weak suppressed convection has been noted near the International Date Line and over the equatorial ocean, while enhanced convection is occurring outside the equator. Additionally, both the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices remain positive.
Modeling Predictions
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which includes the NCEP CFSv2 model, suggests the onset of ENSO-neutral conditions during the February to April timeframe. This prediction aligns with the consensus of various climate experts, who also see ENSO-neutral conditions persisting into the summer of 2026.
Future El Niño Development
There exists a 50% to 60% chance of El Niño formation by late summer 2026. However, uncertainty persists in model predictions, particularly during this seasonal transition when forecasts tend to be less reliable.
- La Niña to ENSO-neutral transition: February-April 2026 (60% probability)
- ENSO-neutral likelihood during summer 2026: 56%
- Niño-3.4 index: -0.9°C
- Last update: February 12, 2026
This analysis is critical for understanding future climatic impacts. Continued monitoring of these patterns will be essential in the coming months to improve predictive accuracy and prepare for potential weather shifts.
