Coinbase heads into earnings as crypto slump hits trading volumes and COIN shares

Coinbase is entering its next earnings report with markets in a distinctly risk-off mood, as bitcoin’s sharp pullback this week has dragged down crypto-linked stocks and revived questions about how quickly retail trading activity can rebound. Coinbase shares have slid hard over the past week, and the company’s February earnings update is now a near-term focal point for investors looking for clarity on transaction revenue, subscription growth, and how management is positioning for a choppier 2026.

The company is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026, with a webcast set for 5:30 p.m. ET.

Why Coinbase is moving with the crypto tape

Coinbase’s business is still highly sensitive to market activity. When crypto prices fall quickly, two opposing forces kick in: volatility can lift trading volumes, but fear can also reduce participation—especially from casual retail users who tend to trade less when sentiment turns sour.

This week’s broad crypto decline has put the “participation” question back on the table. If users step back, transaction revenue can soften even if prices remain volatile. If users lean in—buying dips, rotating tokens, or hedging—volumes can rise, cushioning the hit from lower prices.

For Coinbase, the difference often shows up first in:

• spot trading volume and fee revenue,

• derivatives activity where available,

• stablecoin-related revenue streams,

• and subscription-and-services lines that are designed to be less cyclical than trading fees.

COIN stock: the slide into early February

Coinbase stock has tracked the selloff in crypto assets and related equities. Over the last several sessions, the downtrend has been steady rather than a single-day crash—an important distinction, because it suggests persistent de-risking rather than one isolated headline.

Here’s a snapshot of recent closing prices (ET):

The market’s next “tell” is whether COIN stabilizes into earnings or continues to drift lower as investors brace for softer crypto-linked activity.

What to watch in the Feb. 12 earnings report

Coinbase’s upcoming release matters less for one-quarter headline EPS and more for the operating read-through. Investors will be looking for hard evidence on three fronts:

1) Trading mix and take rate
Changes in trading mix—retail vs. institutional, spot vs. other products—can shift revenue even if total volume holds up. Any commentary on take rate stability will be closely parsed.

2) Subscription and services durability
Coinbase has spent the last few years trying to reduce dependence on pure trading fees. The market will want to see whether non-transaction lines are holding up as the broader crypto market cools.

3) Costs and “operating leverage”
In down cycles, the question becomes how quickly expenses adjust versus revenue. Updates on compensation, infrastructure costs, and compliance spending will shape how investors model profitability in a lower-volume environment.

The macro backdrop: volatility helps until it doesn’t

The current environment is a reminder that volatility is a double-edged sword for exchanges. Short bursts of volatility can drive traders to transact. Prolonged drawdowns can push users into cash, reduce risk appetite, and shrink the pool of active participants.

That’s why forward-looking language will matter. If management emphasizes product expansion, international growth, and a broader services mix, the market may treat the current slump as cyclical. If guidance and tone suggest participation is weakening faster than expected, the stock can stay under pressure even after earnings.

Timeline: the next two weeks are the catalyst window

Coinbase’s immediate catalyst calendar is straightforward:

• Feb. 12, 2026 (after market close): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results

• Feb. 12, 2026 (5:30 p.m. ET): Earnings webcast

Between now and then, COIN will likely continue to trade as a leveraged proxy for crypto sentiment. If crypto prices stabilize, Coinbase can rebound on relief and positioning. If the selloff deepens, expectations for transaction revenue may compress further before management even speaks.

What “good news” would look like

In this setup, a market-friendly Coinbase report would probably include:

• resilient volumes despite the pullback,

• a steady contribution from subscription-and-services,

• and a cost story that doesn’t rely on heroic assumptions.

A weak report, by contrast, would likely feature signs that retail activity has faded materially and that the revenue mix is still too exposed to spot trading cycles.

Sources consulted: Coinbase Investor Relations, Associated Press, Financial Times, Yahoo Finance