How Trump’s Tariffs and Gold Impact Australia’s Top Companies

Rowan Ashford

Published: February 5, 2026 3:16 AM ET

How Trump’s Tariffs and Gold Impact Australia’s Top Companies

As Australia navigates through the economic landscape marked by U.S. trade policies and changing commodity prices, recent analyses indicate a promising outlook for corporate Australia in the financial year 2026.

Corporate Earnings Growth Projections

According to UBS equity strategist Richard Schellbach, initial forecasts projected a modest growth of 3% for the ASX 200. However, this figure has been revised significantly, now expecting earnings growth to exceed 10% by the end of the financial year.

Mining Sector’s Robust Performance

The mining sector is leading this earnings surge, largely driven by a recovering Chinese economy and soaring commodity prices. Fund manager Roger Montgomery highlighted that copper and gold prices are nearing record highs, positively impacting profit margins for mining companies.

Trends in Business Spending

Business spending outside the resources sector rose 8.6% in the three months to September.
Significant investments have been directed towards cloud computing and AI data centres.

However, expectations around growth in companies linked to these sectors are beginning to temper. Dale, NAB’s director of self-managed super funds, warns of potential overvaluation amid extraordinary growth forecasts.

Retail Sector Insights

Despite a vibrant Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales season, the retail environment remains uncertain. Australian consumers reported high spending intentions into the calendar year’s end. Expectations suggest that retail giants like Coles and Woolworths may achieve earnings margins between 2-3%.

Nevertheless, concerns linger over the shifting dynamics in consumer spending. Analysts observed that wealthier households were masking the challenges faced by lower-income renters, which could influence retail performance going forward.

Interest Rates and Banking Sector Implications

Interest rate hikes, while squeezing consumer spending, are expected to elevate the earnings potential of major banks like CBA. Higher interest rates improve net interest margins, aligning the banking earnings trajectory with that of the mining sector.

The Healthcare Sector’s Uncertain Future

Healthcare remains a wildcard in this earnings reporting season. While notable companies like CSL are favored among long-term investors, there are concerns about their current performance. Investors are keenly awaiting indicators of a turnaround strategy from management.

External Influences on Australian Corporations

Analysts caution that geopolitical events, particularly those related to U.S. trade policies under Donald Trump, will significantly affect Australian companies. Uncertainties in global trade make financial forecasting problematic, leading to potential hesitance from executives regarding earnings guidance.

In summary, while Australia’s top companies appear to be capitalizing on current economic trends, external factors and sector-specific challenges may shape their performance in the upcoming reporting season. The influence of Trump’s policies, alongside gold and other commodity prices, remains a focal point for corporate strategies moving forward.