Analysts Boost Gold Forecasts Amid Rising Global Uncertainties
Analysts have significantly increased their gold forecasts for the year 2026 due to growing global uncertainties. A recent Reuters poll indicates a median forecast of $4,746.50 per troy ounce, marking the highest projection since 2012. This increase is in stark contrast to the $4,275 estimate from October and a mere $2,700 forecast made a year ago.
Factors Influencing Gold Prices
The surge in gold prices has been largely attributed to several key factors:
- Geopolitical uncertainty
- Robust central bank purchases
- Concerns over Federal Reserve independence
- Rising U.S. debt
- Trade uncertainties
- De-dollarisation
David Russell, CEO of GoldCore, remarked on the ongoing test of global economic and geopolitical systems, suggesting that this instability is influencing investor behavior.
Market Trends and Performance
Gold prices recently approached $5,100 after showcasing their best performance in over 17 years. However, the prices were volatile, previously dropping to $4,403 due to profit-taking influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair.
Analysts believe that the defensive qualities of gold will continue to attract investments, particularly as central banks look to diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar. This trend is expected to maintain support for the precious metal.
Silver Price Forecasts
In addition to gold, silver price projections have also seen upward adjustments. Analysts now forecast an average price of $79.50 per ounce for 2026, an increase from the previous estimate of $50. This follows a record surge of 147 percent in 2025, with silver reaching an all-time high of $121.64 before retracting to $89.70.
Demand and Market Volatility
Despite positive projections, silver’s market is experiencing contraction in industrial demand. Factors such as shifts in solar module manufacturing and declining jewellery demand have raised concerns about future price stability. Analysts warn of potential volatility and sharp price corrections in the coming years.
In summary, both gold and silver are poised for significant developments, driven by a range of geopolitical and economic factors. Investors and market watchers should closely monitor these trends as they evolve.
