AVGO Stock Today: Broadcom Shares Swing on AI Demand, VMware Momentum, and the Margin Trade-Off Investors Can’t Ignore

Broadcom stock, traded under AVGO, is seeing heightened volatility today as investors weigh a familiar tug-of-war: demand for AI networking and custom chips remains strong, but the company’s fastest-growing AI revenue stream can carry lower margins than other parts of the business. That tension has become the core driver of day-to-day price moves, especially when the broader market is trying to decide whether the next phase of the AI buildout is accelerating or normalizing.

As of Wednesday, February 4, 2026, in late afternoon ET, AVGO is trading near 308 per share after a wide intraday range that included a move above 333 and a dip below 296.

What’s moving Broadcom stock right now

Three forces are dominating the AVGO tape:

1) AI infrastructure demand remains the headline catalyst

Broadcom sits at a crucial chokepoint in AI data centers: high-speed networking. Even when the spotlight is on GPUs, clusters still need switching and routing capacity to keep those chips fed with data. When hyperscalers raise spending plans or signal more AI buildouts, Broadcom often moves in sympathy because it supplies some of the “plumbing” that makes scaling possible.

The market is effectively treating AVGO as a leveraged bet on whether the AI capex cycle stays hot through 2026.

2) The VMware integration is reshaping the business mix

Broadcom’s infrastructure software segment, anchored by VMware, has become a stabilizer: recurring revenue, high stickiness, and a more predictable cadence than semiconductors. Investors generally like that diversification, but they also watch customer behavior closely because pricing and packaging changes can cause near-term turbulence even if long-term subscription revenue rises.

In plain terms: the VMware side can make Broadcom feel less cyclical, but only if the customer base renews and expands without major churn.

3) Margins are the pressure point, not revenue

Broadcom’s recent guidance has shown robust top-line momentum, including a sizable AI component. The catch is that the AI-heavy mix can compress gross margin, which matters because AVGO has historically been valued as a cash-flow machine, not merely a growth story.

That sets up the market’s current posture: investors want proof that Broadcom can keep growing AI revenue without sacrificing profitability and free cash flow quality.

Broadcom earnings: what investors will focus on next

Broadcom’s next major catalyst is its fiscal first-quarter earnings report and earnings call, scheduled for Wednesday, March 4, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Expect the conversation to center on:

• AI semiconductor revenue trajectory for 2026 and how much is truly scheduled versus dependent on customer timing

• Networking demand signals, including whether Ethernet scaling continues to win share inside AI clusters

• Gross margin outlook and whether the company can offset AI mix pressure through pricing, cost discipline, and software contribution

• VMware subscription transition progress, including renewal trends and large enterprise adoption patterns

• Customer concentration and backlog quality, especially how diversified demand is across the biggest AI buyers

Behind the headline: why “great AI news” can still move AVGO down

This is the paradox that keeps surprising newer investors in Broadcom:

• If AI demand rises, revenue visibility improves.

• If AI becomes a larger share of the pie, margins can face pressure.

• If margins compress, the market worries about the durability of the premium valuation.

So a bullish AI headline can produce a mixed stock reaction if it also implies a lower-margin mix. For Broadcom, “more AI” is not automatically “more profit per dollar,” and the market has become extremely sensitive to that distinction.

What we still don’t know

A few unresolved questions will decide whether AVGO’s next leg is higher, choppier, or lower:

• How quickly margin headwinds fade if component costs normalize and scale efficiencies kick in

• Whether VMware’s software base remains resilient against enterprise belt-tightening and licensing alternatives

• Whether AI networking growth is broad-based or overly tied to a handful of hyperscalers

• How sustainable the current pace of AI infrastructure orders is as spending cycles mature

What happens next: realistic scenarios and triggers for AVGO stock

1. AVGO pushes higher if margins stabilize while AI stays strong
   Trigger: management indicates margin troughing and shows software strength offsetting AI mix.

2. AVGO stays volatile if revenue beats but margin guidance stays cautious
   Trigger: repeated quarters where growth is excellent but profitability per dollar remains pressured.

3. AVGO drops if the market senses AI capex cooling
   Trigger: hyperscalers guide to slower buildout timing or shift spending priorities.

4. AVGO rerates upward if VMware proves stickier than skeptics expect
   Trigger: clear evidence of renewals, expanding subscription adoption, and durable software cash flow.

If you tell me whether you’re looking at AVGO for short-term trading or long-term investing, I can tailor this into either a catalyst calendar and risk map, or a fundamentals-based view of what the market is paying for in Broadcom right now.