Renewable Energy Challenges Gas Every 30 Minutes
The energy landscape in Australia is undergoing significant transformation. Data from the National Electricity Market (NEM) and Western Australia’s Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) illustrate how renewable energy sources are consistently displacing gas generation. Recent scatter plots based on half-hourly data from December 24, 2025, to January 13, 2026, highlight this trend in both markets.
Renewable Energy Displacing Gas: Key Insights
In the NEM, a strong negative correlation exists between the share of renewables and gas supply. Even when renewable energy generation falls to 20-30%, gas rarely contributes more than 10% to the overall energy mix. Conversely, as renewable generation surpasses 50%, gas supply approaches zero, demonstrating the effectiveness of Australia’s diverse renewable energy sources, including solar, wind, and hydro.
- Gas penetration declines significantly as renewables rise.
- Gas consistently influences energy prices during peak demand.
- Renewable energy in the NEM averages around 50%.
Western Australia’s Unique Landscape
The WEM, the largest isolated grid globally, displays a similar negative correlation but with distinct variations. In this system, gas supply can surge to 60% when renewable generation is below 20%. However, meaningful gas reduction occurs only when renewables exceed 80%, and near-elimination requires renewable generation to exceed 90%.
- Gas dominates at low renewable levels in the WEM.
- Significant gas displacement happens at high renewable production levels.
The Role of Battery Storage
Battery storage is increasingly becoming a crucial component in this energy transition. NEM battery dispatch rose to 1.5-1.7% by late 2025, facilitating higher renewable penetration of 40-60% while minimizing price volatility. Meanwhile, the WEM has seen battery shares of up to 25%, supporting the transition to higher renewable thresholds and further reducing gas dependency.
- Batteries help stabilize renewable energy supply.
- Increased battery deployment lowers overall energy costs.
Future Implications for Gas Generation
With renewables averaging approximately 50% in the NEM and 55% in the WEM, the trend indicates that gas generation may soon become obsolete. Policymakers must prioritize the acceleration of battery deployments and grid enhancements to ensure a net-zero future. The data shows a promising trajectory: the era of gas is quickly coming to a close.
As this transformation unfolds, it is evident that renewable energy is taking center stage in Australia’s energy landscape.
