Texas Special Election Set to Further Tighten Republican US House Majority

On Saturday, Texas voters will decide between two Democratic candidates in a runoff election to fill a vacant US House seat. This election is set to tighten the Republican majority in the House, currently held by Speaker Mike Johnson.

Overview of the Election

The contest involves former Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee and former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards. The Texas 18th Congressional District has remained vacant since March due to the deaths of former Representatives Sylvester Turner and Sheila Jackson Lee.

Current Political Landscape

The current composition of the House stands at 218 Republicans and 213 Democrats. The departure of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and the death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa have made the Republican majority increasingly fragile.

Once either Menefee or Edwards is elected, Speaker Johnson can only afford to lose one Republican vote on party-line issues.

Upcoming Elections and Events

• The first round of the special election to replace Greene is scheduled for March.
• A potential runoff following that election may happen in April.
• Another special election in April will fill the New Jersey seat left vacant by Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s election as governor.

Redistricting Challenges

Recent redistricting has complicated the runoff election process, as voters will cast ballots under previous district lines. Texas Governor Greg Abbott and state Republicans initiated a mid-decade redistricting effort to gain more seats for the GOP, adjusting the 18th District to become more Democratic.

A federal court had ruled against the new map, suggesting it was unconstitutional. However, the US Supreme Court allowed the new boundaries to remain for the 2026 elections.

Future Implications

A primary for a full two-year term under the new district lines is set for March 3, 2024. Menefee and Edwards have both indicated a desire to run in this primary, regardless of the outcome of Saturday’s runoff.

Candidates’ Statements

Menefee expressed a commitment to focusing on the upcoming races, stressing the overlap between the special election and the primary. Edwards highlighted the need for clear messaging amidst the redistricting confusion.

Both candidates face competition from longtime Rep. Al Green, who is transitioning into the reshaped 18th District.

This special election is significant not only for Texas but also for the wider political strategy of the Republican Party, making it one to watch closely.