Texas Risks Losing Title as America’s Fastest-Growing State

According to new estimates from the Census Bureau, Texas faces a potential decline in its status as America’s fastest-growing state. The net domestic migration to Texas has reached the lowest level in twenty years.

Texas Migration Trends

For the twelve months ending in June 2025, approximately 67,000 people moved to Texas from other states. This marks a significant drop compared to nearly 219,000 three years prior. The slowdown has occurred over three consecutive years, reducing Texas’s growth rate more than any other state except Florida.

Comparative State Growth

Despite these figures, Texas continues to attract more residents than many other states. During the same period, North Carolina saw a net inbound migration exceeding 84,000. Texas previously held the top position for inward domestic migration but has now fallen to second place.

Factors Influencing Migration

• Job Opportunities: Growth in job creation has slowed down, impacting migration.
• Housing Affordability: Rising property taxes have affected perceptions of affordability.
• Declining Pull Factors: Experts note that the reasons for moving to Texas may not be as strong as before.

Vance Ginn, an economic consultant and former chief economist, stated that Texas has not adapted to changing circumstances. Lloyd Potter, state demographer, emphasized the weakening appeal of Texas, although he acknowledged it remains more attractive than many other regions.

International Immigration Trends

From 2022 to 2024, a rise in international immigration initially masked the domestic migration drop. However, as of June 2025, both domestic and international migration have slowed. Around 167,500 new international residents arrived in Texas last year, significantly lower than previous years.

General Population Growth

The overall growth trajectory of Texas has been influenced by historical trends, including a rise in population following Hurricane Katrina and COVID-19. Nevertheless, recent census estimates imply that while migration rates may fluctuate, Texas’s population growth is stabilizing.

Regional Migration Patterns

The slowing migration trend in Texas mirrors a broader trend across the Southern United States. States like Florida have experienced even more dramatic decreases in net migration. Conversely, the Midwest saw a resurgence, with more residents migrating in than out for the first time in over two decades.

As Texas’s growth rate levels off, there may be potential benefits, including reduced strain on infrastructure and resources. The future may see a more balanced migration pattern in the state as it adjusts to these emerging demographic trends.