Alberta’s Population May Exceed British Columbia’s by 2038, Reports StatsCan

Rowan Ashford

Published: January 28, 2026 8:59 AM ET

Alberta’s Population May Exceed British Columbia’s by 2038, Reports StatsCan

Statistics Canada has announced that Alberta may surpass British Columbia in population as early as 2038. This projection suggests a significant shift in demographics within Canada over the next two decades.

Projected Population Growth

The projections indicate that Alberta will have a population exceeding that of British Columbia by 2050 in most scenarios analyzed. The potential population range for Alberta by 2050 is estimated to be between 6.5 million and 8.1 million residents.

Contributing Factors to Growth

Interprovincial migration
Births surpassing deaths

Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Financial, attributes Alberta’s robust growth to these two key factors. He highlights that the influx of younger migrants contributes to a demographic advantage for the province.

Economic Implications

A youthful population is crucial for Alberta’s economy, particularly as many baby boomers approach retirement. The ongoing demographic shift will ensure a steady workforce, which is vital for economic stability.

Challenges Ahead

Despite favorable growth projections, challenges loom on the horizon. Infrastructure development, educational facilities, and job markets will feel the strain from the growing population.

Infrastructure and Housing Issues

Scott Fash, CEO of BILD Alberta, emphasizes the need for sufficient land to accommodate this growth. In the past, certain municipalities, particularly Calgary, faced difficulties due to a lack of available land for development during peak housing demand periods.

Insufficient planning led to housing shortages and rising prices, illustrating the need for proactive measures in urban development.

Focus on Mid-Sized Cities

Looking forward, it is essential to distribute the population growth more evenly. Fash suggests that mid-sized cities should be developed to alleviate the pressure on larger urban centers.

This strategic focus could enhance overall infrastructure and support sustainable growth throughout Alberta.