30% of Albertans Favor Independence, Yet Only Half Fully Support Separation

Recent polling data reveals that a significant portion of Albertans is in favor of independence from Canada. However, when it comes to committed support for separation, the numbers tell a different story. The findings from Ipsos highlighted a divide between those who support the idea of independence and those willing to act on it.

Alberta’s Independence Sentiments

According to a survey conducted by Ipsos from January 9 to 14, approximately 29% of Albertans indicated they would vote for independence. This level of support compares closely to Quebec, where 31% expressed a similar sentiment.

Support Breakdown

• Only about 15-16% of Albertans maintained their support after considering potential downsides.
• These downsides include economic impacts, such as declines in standard of living or pension losses.
• According to the research, three distinct groups of separatists emerged in Alberta:
• Committed Separatists: 56% who would support independence regardless of the costs.
• Conditional Supporters: 25% whose support depends on circumstances.
• Symbolic Supporters: 19% primarily expressing frustration rather than intent to separate.

Implications of the Research

This data suggests that for many, independence is more a political message than a serious commitment. The Ipsos findings revealed a common sentiment among separatist supporters in both Alberta and Quebec, indicating that reasons for wanting to leave Canada may be influenced by local conditions and grievances.

Connecting with Constituents

Many of the committed separatists believe Alberta is marginalized within Canada. Interestingly, 70% of this group would consider aligning with the United States instead of pursuing complete sovereignty.

Petition and Referendum Trends

In light of these sentiments, various groups are mobilizing petitions. The “Forever Canadian” initiative has gathered substantial support, amassing over 456,000 signatures to counter pro-independence sentiments. This campaign, led by former Alberta deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk, aims to affirm Alberta’s status within Canada.

Signature Requirements for Independence Vote

For the separatist initiative promoted by the Alberta Prosperity Project, organized under “Stay Free Alberta,” a new petition aims to collect at least 177,732 signatures by May 2, 2026. This initiative seeks to validate support for a referendum that poses the question of Alberta becoming a sovereign nation.

The Ipsos poll underscores a critical sentiment in Alberta regarding independence, revealing nuanced perspectives on separation. As support remains fragmented, future political strategies will need to adapt to engage various groups effectively.