St. John’s Housing Market Remains Strong Amid National Cooling Trends

The housing market in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, defies national cooling trends as it maintains a strong upward trajectory. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reported a remarkable 9.6% increase in the average sale price of homes in St. John’s from December 2024 to December 2025, while the national average experienced a slight decline of 0.1% during the same period.

Factors Driving St. John’s Housing Market

According to Shaun Cathcart, a senior economist with CREA, one primary reason for the local market’s resilience is the critically low availability of homes. He noted that the current number of homes for sale in St. John’s is at a 20-year low.

Market Dynamics During the Pandemic

• The housing boom began around the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
• Three waves of population growth in St. John’s were identified: young individuals relocating, older Canadians moving from mainland provinces, and a rise in international immigration in 2023 and 2024.

Despite some regions experiencing a decline in housing activity, St. John’s market remains robust. A decline in inventory coincided with increasing demand, resulting in price growth that has benefited sellers.

Insights from Local Realtors

Realtor Nicole Darbaz emphasized that the pandemic caused a significant shift in the local housing market. “The last year has seen a continued decrease in supply and an increase in demand,” she stated. Notably, the nearly 10% price growth recorded from 2024 to 2025 is the highest in five years. Darbaz described St. John’s housing market as a unique “bubble,” largely unaffected by broader economic trends.

Future Market Predictions

CREA predicts a cooling of the market in 2026 as international immigration rates decrease and the influx of new residents from mainland Canada slows. Cathcart suggested that the market may stabilize in what he calls a “Goldilocks zone,” where moderate population growth continues to support housing demand.

• First-time homebuyers are expected to drive sales as prices stabilize.
• Lower interest rates are opening doors for younger buyers who have been out of the market for several years.

Despite signs of potential stabilization, Darbaz reported ongoing bidding wars, with properties selling for as much as $100,000 over the asking price. The cost of new construction is contributing to this trend, with new homes priced significantly higher than existing properties.

Challenges and Demand Forecast

The supply of homes on the market continues to be a challenge in St. John’s. Darbaz predicts sustained demand at least until the conclusion of the spring market in June. The persistent gap between supply and demand is likely to keep home prices elevated.

In summary, while the national housing market shows signs of cooling, St. John’s experiences continued growth, driven by low inventory and sustained demand. The dynamics in this local market showcase a unique economic climate that is noteworthy in the current real estate landscape.