Global Food Catastrophe Looms as Iran Crisis Continues

Almost two months into the Iran conflict, global fuel and fertiliser prices have jumped. Economists now watch the fallout for food costs worldwide.

Shipping chokepoint and supplies

The Strait of Hormuz is central to the disruption. It normally carries about one-third of seaborne fertiliser and one-quarter of seaborne oil.

Tehran has announced restrictions on ships while the United States maintains a blockade of Iranian ports. Maritime traffic has fallen to a trickle.

Fertiliser and input-cost pressure

The World Food Organization and other agencies warn of rising input costs. Urea, ammonia, sulfur and phosphates could become significantly more expensive.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization says fertiliser prices might average about 20 percent higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis continues.

Food-price moves and stocks

FAO data show global food prices rose about 2.4 percent last month versus February. Cereal prices rose roughly 1.5 percent over the same span.

Despite recent rises, food prices remain near 11 percent below 2022 averages. Most food currently consumed was produced before the conflict began.

Global cereal production is at record levels. Cereal stocks are forecast to reach 951.5 million tonnes by the end of the 2026 season, up about 9 percent year on year.

Humanitarian risk and vulnerable countries

The FAO lists India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, Kenya and Egypt as particularly exposed. Low-income households face the heaviest burden.

Matin Qaim from the University of Bonn warns that higher food costs will hit the poorest in Africa and Asia hardest. He expects rises in hunger and undernutrition.

The World Food Programme estimates nearly 45 million more people could face acute food shortages if the conflict extends into mid-year and oil stays above $100 a barrel.

How markets are reading the shock

Futures markets show only moderate price increases. Chicago wheat and maize contracts imply gains around 4–5 percent by year end.

Experts say current signals are mixed. Inventories and pre-purchased fertiliser can delay the transmission of input shocks to retail prices.

Analysts’ views

• Sandro Steinbach notes agriculture reacts on seasonal timelines, while shipping and fertiliser markets reprice fast.
• Elizabeth Robinson points out that grain markets are not being widely disrupted, and export bans have not proliferated.
• Steve Wiggins highlights farmers’ ability to adapt production systems to changing input prices.

Immediate risks for production and nutrition

Rising energy costs already push up transport expenses in cities like Dhaka, Cairo and Lagos. That raises retail food prices directly.

Shouro Dasgupta warns households often switch from fruits, vegetables and protein to cheap, calorie-dense staples. Child nutrition and long-term health suffer.

Kathy Baylis says reduced planted area or lower input use could cut yields. She expects sharper price moves in coming months.

Political context and near-term outlook

The conflict has prompted diplomatic and military moves. In a Bloomberg interview, US President Donald Trump said he was unlikely to extend a short ceasefire.

Experts caution that a prolonged Iran crisis could push the world toward a global food catastrophe if shipping disruption and high oil prices persist.

Policymakers must monitor shipping flows, fertiliser markets and oil prices. Early action can reduce the chance of severe food insecurity.